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Feb 2 8 tweets 2 min read
"Most people who died of COVID-19 have underlying health conditions"

Most people who die OF ANYTHING have underlying comorbidities

MOST ADULTS in many countries have at least 1 underlying health problem!
I mean, obesity is usually defined as a risk factor for Covid-19, as is hypertension. The combined prevalence of just those two issues in many countries is above 1 in 3 adults
Here's an estimate of the "at risk" population from the UK, which aggregated together cancer, heart disease, diabetes, asthma, severe obesity, and CKD. At age ~60, more than half of the population had at least one condition bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…
And that's before you add in mental health, dementia, autoimmune diseases, etc

I think most people drastically underestimate how prevalent a lot of underlying health conditions are in the population
Some of this is because these conditions get diagnosed more often these days, but it's also in large part due to the fact that these health issues are WAY more survivable than they used to be
Many forms of cancer which were a death sentence in the 60s are now not that much more deadly than a chronic disease - still serious, but with a life expectancy of years rather than months
The life expectancy of someone who was diagnosed with type 2 diabetes in the 90s was reduced by 5-10 years - these days it's more like 2-5 years, and even that's falling
Anyway, point is that, depending on where you live, between 1 in 4 and 1 in 2 of your family, friends etc have at least one serious comorbidity that increases their risk of Covid-19

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More from @GidMK

Jan 28
Fascinating: a vast (>20k) gold-standard RCT has failed to find any benefit for vitamin D supplementation on mortality in older people:

"vitamin D supplementation is unlikely to have influence on all-cause mortality" sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
This was a MASSIVE trial, that took place over more than 5 years, and thus is really quite a convincing answer to the question "can taking a vitamin D supplement reduce your risk of death if you don't have a diagnosed deficiency?"
Perhaps even more interestingly, even when stratifying by only those with reduced vitamin D levels, there was no benefit for supplementation
Read 5 tweets
Jan 27
I always find it strange that people think it would be a bad thing if toxic lies were to fester in the dark, rotten places online

Like, those lies have ALWAYS been in those places. We just don't necessarily want them to have a platform *anywhere else*
If you give a ridiculous anti-vaccine conspiracy prime-time, all you are doing is legitimizing nonsense and giving it a platform. It has nothing to do with "shining a light" or whatever
If @lulumeservey and @SubstackInc were to do something about anti-vaccine advocates on their platform, it's true to say that these people would not disappear entirely
Read 4 tweets
Jan 26
So, my wife is a coeliac, which means she gets extremely unwell whenever she eats gluten. Super fun. In the journey that is cooking for her, I came across this fascinating device called the Nima sensor
This cool little piece of tech processes food, then uses existing immunoassays to detect gluten in the sample. Put in your food, it'll tell you if it's actually gluten free
However, when I came across the product on Tiktok, there were tons of comments saying that the device constantly produced false positives and was not worth spending money on

Which I, naturally, got super excited by because it meant I could USE EPI IN REAL LIFE
Read 12 tweets
Jan 19
I think the vaccine/COVID myocarditis issue in kids really shows the difference between those reasonably weighing up costs and benefits and those who are either dishonest or not very good at epidemiology 1/n
2/n We know two things with a great deal of certainty for younger people:

1. myocarditis following vaccination is rare
2. myocarditis following COVID-19 is rare
3/n This is probably not a surprise, because myocarditis is rare in younger people regardless of the situation. Here's a study that found an incidence of 2 cases per 100,000 kids each year ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Read 16 tweets
Jan 19
One thing I don't think people realize about 'endemic' COVID, where we have regular seasonal outbreaks that wax and wane, is how damaging THAT situation will probably be
It's hard to estimate the death/severe disease rate for COVID at this point, due to prior infection, vaccination, and better medication use (e.g. fluvoxamine), but we could say that for someone who's been vaccinated/infected, the risk is probably similar to seasonal influenza
But...influenza kills A LOT of people each year. We may not shut down society because of it, but one study found that eliminating seasonal influenza may reduce total mortality in a country by 3-6% elifesciences.org/articles/69336…
Read 4 tweets
Jan 19
The new viral claim is that cannabis can help with COVID-19, due to a few lab-bench studies

I'm interested to know what people think the likelihood of this panning out is (poll in next tweet)
On average, what proportion of compounds that are found to do something in the lab end up having a benefit in actual clinical trials of human beings?
Now, this is a complex question, but it's also enlightening, because the real answer is that it kind of depends
Read 10 tweets

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