Faisal Islam Profile picture
Feb 2 8 tweets 3 min read
Levelling Up thoughts from earlier

v interesting thing here acknowledgement of one of worst records of major economies on regional inequality, and in fact become worse in recent years

But can entrenched economic geography change without lots of spend?

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
This is from the White Paper - UK worst of G7 nations for regional inequality as measured by ratio of richest fifth of council areas to poorest fifth - and thats got worse over past decade in the UK, but in Germany, Belgium, Japan, Spain, Portugal, gap has closed…
This is a related chart from @NIESRorg
… UK inter regional inequality declining last century before going into reverse since 1990s… whereas Germany closes the east-west gap in same time spectacularly…

researchgate.net/profile/Andre-…
poor productivity record of UK “core cities” when compared to average…

in UK 10 biggest cities materially less productive than average, compared to France, Spain, NL, Italy etc.

But also in Germany Japan, Korea, those cities are actually more productive than average…
In fact Germany’s core cities are as far above the national average of economic output per worker, as the UK’s are below it… interesting though that UK political geography focusses on towns…
Chicken or egg?

Only 7 of the UK’s 41 subregions reach OECD average of spend on research and development of 2.4%…

The first three bars below have more than half total R&D spend, though this might be partially a tax credit HQ effect
Mobility of workers between regions, esp with maximum GCSE qualifications fell over past two decade from just under 25% to 15%
And for those with degrees from 17% to 10%…
Theories? A8 effect?
Also surprised that in the Levelling Up paper there is no mention I can see of the post Covid change to office use/ home working as a unique opportunity to help change economic geography, spread high paid jobs around the country… etc. would seem to be a golden opportunity.

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More from @faisalislam

Feb 3
New energy cap just about to be announce - and the Treasury response, and the Bank of England rate decision - all in next hour - follow live page here… bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-6…
NEW ofgem announce energy price cap will rise by £693 for typical household annually in April to £1917 for dual fuel £2017 for prepayment. Huge rises - will send inflation closer to 7%
Chancellor explaining how he will try to help mitigate - says its for Bank of England to deal with inflation…

NEW: £350 support consisting of

£200 rebate in October to be repaid over 5 years at £40 per year …

£150 non repayable rebate council taxes for 4/5 households
Read 15 tweets
Feb 2
story I did last month about “Cost Deferral Mechanism” loans meant to smooth energy bills, that we appear to be getting, pointing to the delicate politics of spreading the oil price shock over a few years… bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Video from last nights #BBCNewsSix explaining the price pressures imported into UK at “Energy Island” the Isle of Grain, where massive tankers of liquefied gas were arriving. A record number came to the UK in January, mainly from the USA:
Going through some of the factors going into the Ofgem energy price cap rise, and the Government’s options to mitigate with a bar chart, which the geniuses at BBC graphics matched to my bar scarf…
Read 11 tweets
Jan 28
Lorry queues at Dover, due to ferry cancellations and post Brexit customs checks/ paperwork on outgoing lorries, truckers tell my colleague @BBCChrisMorris who has been looking at the almost regular use of Dover TAP queues this month:

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Here’s what I’ve been told about this.

should be said, on both sides of border, up until last week, officials had been pleasantly surprised re new incoming (ie EU to UK) checks seemed to settle ok. “Turnbacks” of lorries with incorrect paperwork 30%ish in 1st week, down to 5ish%
3 separate things

1. New UK checks incoming, some paperwork required at eg Calais - seems smooth, tho traffic low. Awaiting stats.

2. New UK checks eg off M20, described as “black box” -little info emerging re some long import delays

3. Dover TAP activated repeatedly outbound
Read 10 tweets
Jan 27
“Dismal year” for UK car production as global chip shortage bites - worst for 65 years @SMMT
… though avoiding No Deal tariffs etc has released investments in future electric capacity for future…
bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
1956 was the last time we saw so few cars produced, also the year that the UK lost its title as being the world’s biggest exporters of cars… to Germany.

(German post-war success in part, eg Volkswagen, down to RAF Major Hirst restarting Beetle production at Wolfsburg)
1956 was also the Suez crisis, which brought petrol rationing, and led to the creation of the fuel efficient Mini, which in 2021, under German ownership, was the UK’s most exported car….
Read 4 tweets
Jan 25
White House reveals talks to find alternative gas supplies for Europe in event of Russian invasion of Ukraine/ sanctions on Russia - “What we’re looking at is to make sure that there are some suppliers that are able to bring on volumes into Europe”… whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
White House talks with companies that could supply European gas needs for months if Russian supplies are cut off “to see how much they can increase that output on a relatively temporary basis. So, for a number of months, while we’re in a crisis — potentially in a crisis mode.”
“we’re engaging our European allies to coordinate our response planning, including talking to them how they deploy their existing energy stockpiles, which are, obviously, at significantly low levels this year due to the reduced Russian supplies over the last several months…”
Read 6 tweets
Jan 24
Treasury minister Lord Agnew resigns at despatch box calling anti fraud measures on pandemic loans “desperately inadequate”
- “oversight by both BEIS & British Business Bank ..nothing less than woeful”..
“HMT has no knowledge or little interest in consequences of fraud”
…Ouch - Treasury minister Agnew resigning at despatch box on Covid rescue anti fraud failings: “Schoolboy errors were made, for example allowing over 1000 companies to receive Bounceback loans who were not even trading when Covid struck”
“… simply failed to understand agents hold in stock companies with earlier creation dates…”
“Ive been arguing with Treasury and BEIS officials for two years to get them to lift their game, I have mostly been unsuccessful”…
Read 10 tweets

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