Very Intense Cyclone Batsirai #ExtremeWeather Update 4. 3/2/21
#Batsirai has slowed down to a crawl, it has been moving WSW at 5mph (7kmh) for the past 17 hours at least. It is also wobbling and weakening. But the current official forecasts do not reflect this WRT to landfall.
This is common for an EWRC [Eye Wall Replacement Cycle], after which the storm can be expected to strengthen rapidly. #Batsirai's eye is certainly now very ragged. (images here used to verify speed and heading data). It appears the track is to the north of the current forecast.
The much larger eye indicated in the latest imagery is still full of cloud, and it appears the EWRC is complete.
Spaghetti model data shows no change to the track heading or timing, but bear in mind that the more larger/intense a cyclone is the less predictable it becomes.
Typhoon #INFA and Hurricane #Dorian are very good examples of this.
This closeup animation - 24 hours - shows the eyewall replacement cycle in close up - which is not yet complete as the new eyewall structure is far from complete. Comparing this with the track the only real variation is slightly slower forward motion than expected.
24hour Satellite Loop image of #Batsirai to 10.15am UTC today. 3rd February. Outer bands of the storm have now reached Madagascar's East Coast, current forecasts suggest landfall of the eyewall will take place at around 6am on Saturday 5th February.
This simulation animation from the GFS model shows six hourly rainfall from 6am tomorrow (4/2/21) morning to 6am Monday (7/2/21).
This plot shows the accumulated rainfall as of 7/2/21.
This animation shows latest GFS model run's forecast 10m sustained winds. It shows around 90 knots (105mph 166kmh) at landfall.
There is some good news for Mozambique & South Africa in the latest few GFS runs. These four plots showing accumulated rain as of 6am 10 Feb.
1. 1/2 6z 2. 2/2 6z 3. 2/2 18z 4. 3/2 6z
A clear trend in the GFS model has #Batsirai turning south after crossing Madagascar.
And the latest run from the European ECMWF model is in agreement on this.
All that being said, everything is dependent on what happens over the next 48 hours following this eye wall replacement cycle.
Specifically if #Batsirai:
- reorganises itself quickly and strengthens.
or
- continues to move very slowly, possibly weakening but generating more and more atmospheric water.
Netanyahu has proposed a pathway to end the war in Gaza under pressure primarily from the U.S. UK, France & Germany. Spain and Ireland and several other European nations & the European Commission.
The @israelipm sounds defeated. Hopefully this is the beginning of the end. The deal being offered to Gaza is far from perfect but it sounds workable in Netanyahus outline.
@IsraeliPM Whether it will be approved by Hamas however is unclear and rather complicated - as it’s unclear who inside Gaza would be in a position to respond to the offer. Many of Hamas’s fighters may prefer to die as martyrs also than to agree to any deal.
This is pathetic from @realDonaldTrump he’s lashing out like an angry teenager. Jerome Powell says he’s included a the costs of a building that was completed years ago in his very public attack on the FED Chair.
Trump has completely lost the plot. The single most damaging thing that he could do to undermine confidence in the U.S. dollar (which he publicly claims to want to deflate and there by make all Americans poorer - is to attack the Federal Reserve and the SEC.
@realDonaldTrump Trump is setting fire to the dollar to distract from his Epstein mess what a complete baby.
I attended the Bonn climate talks. They were very disappointing to everyone. The elephant in the room was (of course) the U.S. decision to withdraw from the talks altogether.
Unfortunately.. perhaps intentionally in advance of the continuation of climate talks regardless of #US_Disintigration the talks were also very sparsely attended particularly by activists and NGOs. The reason for this was @elonmusk destroying @-USAID.
@elonmusk As you can see the USAID Twitter account is now dead - deleted which is an appalling act of vandalism executed by Elon and his tech-bro team of teenagers.
This article is deeply depressing. For my part at Scoop.co.nz it is clear to me that:
1. The Govt has a deliberate strategy - probably not official but nevertheless operative to destroy NZ media. 2. This is not going to change any time soon. thespinoff.co.nz/politics/02-07…
& Sadly from what I discerned last year the @nzlabour opposition is both apathetic and indifferent to the plight of media. Also the @NZGreens. And have always been so for as long as I can remember.
This is extremely disappointing
@nzlabour @NZGreens I will be returning to NZ in August to ensure continues to function in these very difficult times for NZ media. We have faced numerous big challenges recently and thank our supporters and readers for their support.Scoop.co.nz
Ok so this is a bit weird, but in a kinda chill way so do bare with me and and I will be happy to answer questions afterwards. It’s about a castle on a virtual island in a massive online role playing game called Evony and it involves a possible but speculative discussion about @elonmusk and @X.
All will be revealed but first a picture or four actually from the game. More will come.
Ok. So here’s what I think is going on in a nutshell. I think elonmusk has invested in a MMORPG: a “Massive Multimedia Online Role Playing Game” which is a bit of a mouthful, called EVONY.
I liked its Twitter ads and finally clicked. It’s huge. Someone else can do the business story here which I am sure is interesting too.
But the this bit is weird.
The mysterious knight on the red horse arrived this morning beside my castle and he had some treasure.
I hadn’t a clue who it was so I grabbed the treasure and tried to kill the horse and rider as that’s what you do. But we got smashed badly.