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Feb 3 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
NEW: Ofgem confirms that the domestic energy price cap will increase by *£693* from April.

That’s an increase of 54%.

Hard to overestimate just how impactful that will be on (i) the family finances of millions who are struggling (ii) politics.
Also true to say that without amelioration, such an increase may mean many who aren’t quite struggling now, will be as the year progresses (especially when combined with other inflationary pressures).
Bear in mind that in 2019 15% of households in England were already living in fuel poverty. That’s over 3 million.

Definition below.
Recent uSwitch research said that some 1.6 million households will be forced to choose between warming up their home and putting food on the table this winter. That’s before this change happens.
Wouldn’t be surprised at all now if we see a renewed push on the Tory benches to at least defer the NI rise. Even though we knew this was coming the stark reality of it likely enough to reanimate the effort, especially as PM’s political position continues to be so unsteady.
History of the last fifty years or so suggests periods of extreme energy price fluctuations have the potential to lead to an equally volatile politics. It won’t only be the British government which is very nervous about all of this.
Sunak confirms that the government will not be cutting VAT on energy bills.

Michael Gove and Boris Johnson once said that being able to cut VAT was one of advantages of leaving the EU. BJ said in 2016: “When we Vote Leave, we will be able to scrap this unfair and damaging tax."
Sunak announcements:

-£200 rebate on energy bills, to be paid back by consumers over 5 years
-£150 off council tax for those who live in Band A-D houses from April
Conservative MP saying Sunak’s package “lacks ambition.”

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More from @lewis_goodall

Lewis Goodall Profile picture
Feb 3
Former Conservative Foreign Sec Malcolm Rifkind tells Newsnight: "With the best will in the world one has to say that this isn't so much the end of the beginning but the beginning of the end...for Munira Mirza to resign...that shows he's become toxic among even his allies."
"He's not a fool, he's a highly intelligent man...But what we've seen is his political judgment has turned out to be very hollow...the attempt to save Owen Paterson had to be reversed 24 hours later. The attempt to prorogue Parliament was repudiated by the Supreme Court."
Rifkind comparing Johnson's problems to other PMs "[on other occasions] it was not an issue of the integrity of the prime minister, the honesty of the prime minister, of the basic competence of the PM. This is something unique in British politics as far back as you wish to go."
Read 5 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
Feb 3
All this matters because a) until today these people were pivotal players governing this country b) we’re facing crisis on multiple fronts (energy crisis alone huge) and centre of govt gripped by personnel changes and lack of clarity as to who will want to take their place.
As I was saying on the programme just now- Tory internal conversation is now two narratives over these resignations. PM’s critics will point to Mirza’s. They’ll say this is the most important one, the closest of his allies reminding us of the PM’s capacity to self-detonate:
They’ll say the Savile comments were a complete self inflicted wound, nothing to do with partygate. But that it arises from PM’s character and his style- and that no matter what staff changes there are he will never change. They’ll argue if it’s not this it’ll be something else,
Read 7 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
Feb 3
Enormous story. Mirza is one of the PM's longest-standing lieutenants and key members of his inner circle. Worse for BJ is what she says:"I believe it was wrong for you to imply this week that Keir Starmer was personally responsible for allowing Jimmy Savile to escape justice..."
"...This was not the usual cut and thrust of politics; it was an inappropriate and partisan reference to a horrendous case of child sex abuse. You tried to clarify your position today but, despite my urging, you did not apologise for the misleading impression you gave."
"Even now, I hope you find it in yourself to apologise for a grave error of judgement made under huge pressure. I appreciate that our political culture is not forgiving when people say sorry, but regardless, it is the right thing to do. It is not too late for you but.."
Read 6 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
Feb 2
Opening from Keir Starmer to Tory MPs: “Theirs is the party of a Winston Churchill. Our parties stood together as we defeated fascism...now their leader stands in the House of Commons parroting conspiracy theories of violent fascists to try and score cheap political point.” #PMQs
Starmer knows what he’s doing there. Tapping into deep unease on at least part of the Conservative benches.
Starmer: “He knows exactly what he is doing. It is time to restore some dignity.”
Read 5 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
Feb 1
NEW: This is a copy of the foreword to the Levelling Up White paper due tomorrow- written by Michael Gove and Andy Haldane and seen by Newsnight. They say they want to create a country where “by staying local, you can go far.”
Michael Gove will announce 12 missions tomorrow, actual metrics against which levelling up will be judged. This is the full table from an internal govt document. Includes everything from Living Standards, to digital connectivity, to education, to “pride in place.”
You’ll notice 2030 is the key date used repeatedly. Various metrics of economic growth across regions is the first mission and here are the full explanatory and technical notes we’ve seen from within the Dept as to what they mean by it.
Read 17 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
Feb 1
Conservative MP for Waveney says Boris Johnson should resign and has submitted a letter to Sir Graham Brady. Says he’s never taken such an act against a Conservative leader before (he’s been an MP since 2010).
“Whilst I am conscious that others will disagree with me, I believe that this is in the best interests of the country, the Government and the Conservative Party.”
Today the government wants to talk about “levelling up.” But half an eye will be on the number of letters in possession of Graham Brady trickling up. Defence Select Committee Chair, Tobias Ellwood has now submitted one 👇
Read 6 tweets

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