Thread by @gelliottmorris

Am hearing more and more that Dems have gerrymandered their way to a balanced national House map. Will have more on this next week, but 2 points are (a) this ignores the role of litigation + independent commissions & (b) that there is still huge asymmetric bias at the state level

As a reference pt, states that Biden won by more than 5pts in 2020 had an efficiency gap of 5% under the old lines. Republicans rates had an average efficiency gap closer to 15 (2x the proposed threshold for litigation). After redistricting, Ds might be closer to 9, and Rs 14-15.

(Note, of course, that lots of maps aren't finalized yet so these calculations require some educated guesses, and numbers will change slightly)

No -- my very narrow point here is that maps are still substantially biased toward Republicans

https://twitter.com/teslafanboijohn/status/1489297941437181955?s=20&t=fttITNkaXoFB6upOfUJ-fw

IMO a real weakness of most of the benchmarking going around online is that people are assumes district partisanship == Biden vote, when it fact House Dems underperformed Biden by a significant margin. So most of these scenarios are probably too optimistic by a good # of seats

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1489286657870340096