Two things on the advertising market: (1) over many years, we established two companies (google/facebook) took most of the growth (“duopoly”) leading now to significant legislation and enforcement. They’ve long had talking points fed thru allies to spin scrutiny in order to… /1
try to dilute the point: a) “not globally!” (then they include China where they mostly don’t do business), b) “some of that is gross and we share it!” (ignoring the control of the $ flow and terms of trade go thru them), c) more recently, “it’s a tripololy! look at Amazon!”… /2
on the last point, Amazon finally broke out ad revenues of $35 billion. The duopoly were $325 billion last year. Amazon has too much market power and they’re leveraging for ad $, too. But let’s be clear, they don’t compete or weaken the lawsuits around google or Facebook. /3
2) just as it’s true it was highly misleading to spread overall digital ad euphoria in 2014-20 when a duopoly was taking near 100% of incremental growth, it’s absurd to suggest Facebook’s slowdown indicates slowdown of the sector. Facebook is getting pummeled mostly because… /4
surveillance advertising is under pressure by tracking prevention from tech (thank you, Apple) and law (welcome to party, GDPR and CPRA). Facebook is more dependent on 3rd party data than anyone. But their decline is everyone else’s gain and not likely Amazon or Google’s. /5 
Any media property with a direct, trusted relationship with its audience has huge opportunity. Snap’s upturn yesterday shows they’re likely one beneficiary. Who else will be? Advertisers $ will reallocate across digital as they continue to work to create desire and demand. /6
The best positioned are publishers with significant streaming assets (rocket growth, high value), “zero party” data (volunteered user data as part of product offering), and a clear brand value and product differentiation who are ready to lead on consumer expectations. And also /7
who have ignored convoluted universal tracking systems (email hashing) and attempts by ad tech / surveillance beneficiaries (including Google and Facebook) to protect the status quo that have come out of places like the IAB. Those ready to evolve will win. Solve this problem: /8
Deliver relevant digital advertising to audiences around streaming video or on platforms with tracking prevention (iOS, Safari, Firefox) and you’ll be ready for a cookieless, private world and benefit more than anyone. HUGE opportunity. /eof
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