Thread by @ruima

The problem w bad China takes is that most people just don't know what they don't know. It's really easy to get bad info. Let me give you a personal example, this is 2017. I'm in China for a biz trip trip and happen to run into some expats I know in a bar in Beijing, all in tech.

They're tech folks but they're newish to China, and they're hanging out with this person who is talking up a storm about their billionaire connections. Let's call them X. X and I have met before but never talked too much. X knows I'm in tech and immediately proceeds to show off.

Oh you used to work for a US based fund they say.
Yes but I just quit.
That's prob a good idea. I was just showing the head of this Top Fund around this week in Beijing. They have no idea what they're doing. I had to introduce them to everyone.
Oh?! That's funny, because ...

*I* was the one who 100% organized that trip! And they were NOT involved. That was in fact why I was in Beijing.
I didn't say anything though just nodded & enjoyed the hell out of listening to their lies. They're good. Super confident. But there are so many like that everywhere.

That would be the end of it except since then, I've heard this person's name mentioned at least half a dozen times by pretty legit non-Chinese investors who think they have such insight into China because they're friendly with this person. In very serious business convos.

And as I mentioned, the context in which I met this person was with some other expats who actually did LIVE in China (from TW/HK tho, not local) and worked in tech investment but just had no context as to who they're hanging out with, so it's not just foreigners getting conned.

So yeah, you might think you know what's going on, or you might just know some really confident person who speaks good English and knows all the right things to say.
Good luck trying to figure out which one it is when you don't know what you don't know.