Darren 🥚 Profile picture
Feb 4 13 tweets 4 min read
1/ A Wandering Mind is an Unhappy Mind (Killingsworth, Gilbert)

"A human mind is a wandering mind; a wandering mind is an unhappy mind. The ability to think about what is not presently happening is a cognitive achievement that comes at an emotional cost."
wjh-www.harvard.edu/~dtg/KILLINGSW…
2/ " “Stimulus-independent thought” or “mind wandering” appears to be the brain’s default mode and allows people to learn, reason, and plan.

"Unfortunately, collecting real-time reports as people go about their daily lives is cumbersome and expensive.
3/ "Such experience sampling has rarely been used to investigate the relationship between mind wandering and happiness and has always been limited to very small samples.

"We solved this problem by developing aWeb application for the iPhone that contacts people at random moments.
4/ "Our database currently contains nearly a quarter of a million samples from about 5000 people from 83 different countries who range in age from 18 to 88 and who collectively represent every one of 86 major occupational categories.
5/ "The question 'How are you feeling right now? was answered on a scale from very bad (0) to very good (100).

"The mind-wandering question 'Are you thinking about something other than what you're currently doing' could be answered four ways: {yes,no} * {pleasant,unpleasant}.
6/ "People’s minds wandered frequently regardless
of what they were doing. Mind wandering occurred in 46.9% of the samples and in at least 30% of the samples taken during every activity except making love. The frequency of mind wandering in our real world sample was considerably
7/ "higher than is typically seen in laboratory experiments. Surprisingly, the nature of people’s activities had only a modest impact on whether their minds wandered and had almost no impact on the pleasantness of the topics to which their minds wandered.
8/ "Multilevel regression revealed that people were less happy when their minds were wandering than when they were not [slope (b) = –8.79, P < 0.001], and this was true during all activities, including the least enjoyable.
9/ "Although people’s minds were more likely to wander to pleasant topics (42.5% of samples) than to unpleasant topics (26.5%) or neutral topics (31%), people were no happier when thinking about pleasant topics than about their current activity (b =–0.52, not significant)
10/ "and were unhappier when thinking about neutral (b = –7.2, P < 0.001) or unpleasant topics (b = –23.9, P < 0.001) than about their current activity.

"Time-lag analyses suggested that mind wandering was generally the cause, not merely the consequence, of unhappiness."
11/ "What people were thinking was a better predictor of their happiness than was what they were doing. The nature of people’s activities explained 4.6% (3.2%) of the within-person (between-person) variance in happiness, but mind wandering explained 10.8% and 17.7%, respectively.
12/ "The variance explained by mind wandering was largely independent of the variance explained by the nature of activities, suggesting that the two were independent influences on happiness."
13/ More reading

Time Smart: How to Reclaim Your Time & Live a Happier Life


Putting a price tag on friends, relatives, & neighbors


If Money Doesn't Make You Happy, You Probably Aren't Spending It Right

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More from @ReformedTrader

Feb 4
1/ The Great Inflation, Factors, and Stock Returns (Stanhope)

"Equities as a whole may not welcome high rates of inflation, but certain stock selection factors have shown resilience in periods of rising prices."

canvas.osam.com/Commentary/Blo…
2/ "During the Great Inflation era (1965-1982), inflation annualized at 6.5%. While comparisons to our current situation are tempting, the structure of the global economy and monetary, fiscal, energy, and labor policies are dramatically different."
3/ "Inflation is a ‘tax’ on revenues, not profits.

"High taxes in high-inflation regimes can push the effective tax rate above 100%, leading corporations to rack up expenses to reduce pre-tax profits.

"Current corporate tax rates should not exacerbate inflationary forces."
Read 7 tweets
Feb 4
1/ Modern Endowment Story: A Ubiquitous United States Equity Factor (Ennis)

"Endowments' overwhelming exposure to the U.S. equity market over the most recent 5–7 years raises important questions regarding risk tolerance and diversification."

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
2/ Over the most recent six years, the NACUBO equal-weighted composite of large endowments has had a beta to the benchmark of 1.0 and R² of .998. This is a dazzlingly tight fit, considering that the independent variables are restricted to fully investable, broad market indexes."
3/ "The U.S. equity market risk premium is embedded in the principal asset classes that endowments employ. (I make no attempt to adjust for the return smoothing characteristic of private markets. The correlations and betas would no doubt be greater if I had done so.)"
Read 9 tweets
Feb 3
1/ Putting a price tag on friends, relatives, and neighbours (Powdthavee)

"Using the British Household Panel Survey, I find that an increase in the level of social involvements is worth up to an extra £85,000 a year in terms of life satisfaction."

researchgate.net/publication/22… Image
2/ "While there is substantial evidence that people with strong social ties tend to report higher levels of happiness and satisfaction, this article will be one of the first to compare this impact to the impacts other occurrences in our lives." ImageImageImageImage
3/ "Think of a person who derives satisfaction from spending time with friends and also enjoys money. In principle, it is be possible to calculate exactly how the time spent with friends is worth in terms of income: a valuation for social relationships." Image
Read 21 tweets
Feb 3
1/ Evidence for Community Cloth Face Masking to Limit the Spread of SARS‐​CoV‑2: A Critical Review (Liu, Prasad, Darrow)

"The clinical evidence of mask efficacy is of low quality. The best available clinical evidence has mostly failed to show efficacy."

cato.org/working-paper/… Image
2/ "Aerosol transmission has been demonstrated or is considered likely for SARS-CoV, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), H1N1, & respiratory syncytial virus. A growing body of laboratory, animal, & clinical evidence suggests SARS-CoV-2 is also spread via this mechanism." ImageImage
3/ "Most studies evaluating as-worn efficacy compare the number of particles collected inside/outside a mannequin head’s mask. Under these conditions, cloth masks have highly variable filtration qualities.

"Surgical masks outperform cloth masks but still have variable results." Image
Read 23 tweets
Feb 2
1/ When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management (Roger Lowenstein)

"If there was one article of faith that John Meriwether had discovered at Salomon Brothers, it was to ride your losses until they turned into gains."

amazon.com/When-Genius-Fa… Image
2/ "He often bet that a spread—say, between a futures contract and the underlying bond, or between two bonds—would converge.

"Occasionally, other investors might get scared and withdraw, causing spreads to widen further and causing Meriwether to lose money, at least temporarily.
3/ "But if he had the capital to stay the course, he’d be rewarded in the long run, or so his experience seemed to prove. Eventually, spreads always came in; that was the lesson he had learned from the Eckstein affair, and it was a lesson he would count on, years later, at LTCM.
Read 32 tweets
Feb 2
1/ COVID-19 Vaccination in Children and University Students (Ioannidis)

"Given the extremely low rates of COVID-19 fatalities and of vaccine fatalities in children and adults under the age of 29, nonfatal outcomes matter a lot in decision-making."

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.111… Image
2/ "773 U.S. college campuses as of August 24, 2021 have issued vaccination requirements for at least some students or employees, but details, target groups and stringency of rules vary remarkably.

"European universities generally encourage vaccination without mandating it."
3/ "Young people can be major drivers of active epidemic waves (in terms of their share in numbers of documented cases). However, opposite arguments also exist, e.g. that vaccinating the youngest age strata may shift infection to higher ages with higher case fatality." Image
Read 12 tweets

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