Bill Hanage Profile picture
Feb 4 10 tweets 2 min read
I’ve been thinking the last few days how it’s hard for non-specialists, watching a twitter spat between apparent experts, to know who to believe. Here are a few things I bear in mind when following people outside my own field. A far from exhaustive list 1/n
The person who posts the most is not necessarily the one with the most or the best evidence. They may simply be the person with the most time. Once I'm done with this I will be making my kids dinner and spending time with them, so don't expect me to notice twitter😊 2/n
The person with the fancier credentials is not always right. Nor is it the case that every loud voice with narrow experience is bravely telling truth to power 3/n
Dubious claims like "Oh look at this complicated thing that I understand but you don't" are deployed by all sorts to suggest they are super clever, and are a tell 4/n
(in passing, every time I review a paper which airily claims to have shifted a paradigm, I point out that whether it does so or not is for others and posterity to decide, not an enthusiast high on their own supply) 5/n
And as for those pushing against the scientific consensus - just because everybody thinks you’re wrong don’t make you Galileo 6/n
Those who state “I don’t know” or “I was wrong” are far more worthy of respect than those who never do so. I’ve lost count of the things I don’t know and the things I’ve got wrong. Hopefully I’ve got others right, and I will try to learn from my mistakes 7/n
For professional scientists, publications are more important than likes or RTs. If someone is mostly pushing their ideas on social media rather than trying to get them in the scientific literature, that’s not a good sign. Nor is appealing to the court of twitter opinion 8/n
Please don’t bother guessing who I’m subtweeting; it’s nobody in particular. But reflect how many times you’ve witnessed these behaviors. There’s another reason this is not targeted at anyone especially. And it’s the last observation 9/n
Conduct matters. If someone is frequently rude to those they disagree with and especially if they target those in a position of less power, that’s a really bad sign. And while nobody can be responsible for the behavior of followers, you can refuse to condone pile ons 10/end

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More from @BillHanage

Jan 26
This is a completely reasonable request about what recent UK (and other) data means for the pandemic, and in particular BA.1 and BA.2 (let alone BA.3 which, yes, is a thing). Here goes 1/n
BA.1 and BA.2 (leaving 3 aside for this) are *both* omicron. They are deep branching cousins within the lineage, separating almost a year ago (phylogenetic types don't at me, this is in general terms) 2/n
Now they can be distinguished using this neat property of one of the diagnostic tests. BA.1 has a mutation which means some tests produce a weird characteristic result called Spike Gene Target Failure or SGTF. Most other circulating viruses (including Delta and BA.2) don't 3/n
Read 12 tweets
Jan 15
Despite the very sharp drop in wastewater numbers in the Boston area, daily covid deaths are ticking up towards last winter's peak. What can we learn from elsewhere? Well let's compare with the UK, which is a little further along the epidemic curve 1/n
I pick the UK not only because it's where I was born, but because the population is about 10x that of MA, meaning it's easy to do the math in your head, look at this 2/n
So per capita, MA is seeing roughly twice as many daily covid deaths as the UK right now. Lots of possible reasons for that, but this one is important. About 36% of the population in MA is boosted (from mass.gov/doc/daily-covi…) 3/n
Read 5 tweets
Jan 11
What did I say last Friday about the Boston area peaking? The wastewater data are in, and the news is good. @MWRA_update and @BiobotAnalytics providing solid evidence, that importantly *can't* be put down to exhausted testing capacity or other factors 1/n
this is obviously good, but it's not out of the woods good. Many of these infections were in younger age groups. We are now starting to see more infections in older folks, who are more likely to require hospital care 2/n
this would be expected to lead to fewer but more consequential infections in terms of healthcare, and a curve there closer to a plateau. They might drop more quickly than that, and they did in S Africa, but there are more older people here (albeit they are more boosted) 3/n
Read 6 tweets
Jan 8
Why are we not all chilled given vaccines work against severe illness even with omicron? Well in the US (and pretty much anywhere) we are yet to see infections of large numbers of older people, and healthcare is already stretched. Here goes 1/n
This makes the point at least as well as I could
2/n
Right now close to 10% of folks in my neighborhood are infected. What this means is both good and bad 3/n
Read 10 tweets
Jan 7
So a brief thread on the state of the pandemic in the Boston area. It is quite plausible that about 10% of the population is currently infected, more in some age groups than others. A *lot* of omicron. What next? 1/n
First that 10% figure. Earlier this week, the local school district tried pooled testing before reopening after the holidays. It didn't go well as 157/362 pools came back positive, that's consistent with about 5% of the population being positive 2/n
(we don't know exactly, because the individual swabs never got tested. But some pools will have had >1 positive swab by chance, so it is probably more than 5% although way short of some of the numbers in the email parents received. Not great communication there) 3/n
Read 16 tweets
Jan 6
The local school district has done a phenomenal job of keeping education going while keeping transmission minimal in the last year. We all owe everyone involved a debt of gratitude. Recent experience with omicron however, is worth sharing. It's sobering if not very surprising 1/n
The plan was to test the community before returning to school after the winter break. A day of testing, and then the positive cases would be informed and don’t come to school. This is pretty smart in normal circumstances because... 2/n
...prevalence (the number currently infected/infectious) at a given time is not the same as incidence (the number infected in a given period). This would stop a larger number of infectious folks coming into the schools. Great plan. These are not normal circumstances 3/n
Read 12 tweets

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