I suspect a single-dose booster won’t be enough against the omicron strain, because it’s changed so much it’s almost like a new virus. One dose wasn’t enough against the original strain, either. Two doses seems more realistic.
Our best bet for bringing the pandemic to a end may be nasal spray vaccines.
Early experiments suggest these may be more resistant to variants and do a much better job of preventing infection and blocking transmission than the current generation of vaccines.
But vaccines alone aren’t going to end the pandemic.
Vaccination is extremely important but we also need to make some changes to the way we live our lives. Hopefully many of these changes can be unobtrusive, such as improving ventilation & using HEPA technology to clean the air.
SARS-CoV-2 is one of the most transmissible viruses known to man. It doesn’t behave like flu.
It’s not seasonal, and the speed at which it moves around the globe means that we can’t predict how to update the vaccines each year in advance in the same way that we do for flu shots.
That’s why we need to slow transmission down with a ventilation and #VaccinesPLUS strategy. This will enable us to use the vaccines that we have more effectively, leading to fewer restrictions in the long run, healthier populations, and stronger economies. bmj.com/content/376/bm…
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Masks should be encouraged for primary school students, and the Government should consider supplying schools and parents with comfortable, high-quality KF94 masks.
Concerning new UK data show protection against hospitalisation is greatly reduced for the omicron variant. About 6 months after 2 doses, effectiveness is reduced to 52%.
The good news is that a third vaccine dose brings protection against hospitalisation up to 88% for the omicron variant.
Protection against hospitalisation caused by the delta variant remains at a very high level, for both two and three doses.
A study from South Africa recently estimated that two doses of the Pfizer-BNT vaccine offers 93% protection against hospitalisation caused by the delta variant, and 70% for the omicron variant. nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
The omicron variant is AT LEAST as bad as the 2020 virus.
But the omicron variant is far more transmissible, and our vaccines don’t work as well against it.
This means that an omicron variant epidemic will infect far more people than a delta variant epidemic would.
In practical terms, this means the omicron variant is MORE dangerous than the delta variant.
I modelled what would happen if either of these variants were allowed to spread in Western Australia with only a *double-dose* vaccination level of 90% (i.e., hardly any third doses).
I recently went to two Christmas parties. Not a single person was wearing a mask.
And it was okay, because there’s no epidemic where I live. Western Australia has managed to sustain zero COVID for nearly 2 years.
Eliminating COVID-19 was always possible. The world chose not to.
This got people talking. Good. But the point isn’t Christmas parties or Western Australia. It’s that elimination is the only long-term strategy for ending the pandemic. I’m not someone who typically praises China, but the government there understood this. bmj.com/content/375/bm…
But elimination doesn’t require draconian measures. There are many tools in the toolbox that we’re not yet using (or not using widely), such as ensuring everyone has a better mask. People need masks that can block aerosols. Better ventilation is also key. masks4all.co/faqs-on-better…
People vaccinated with 2 doses of the Pfizer-BNT vaccine likely have no protection against infection with the omicron strain. Protection after 3 doses has likely taken a big hit as well.
Antibodies collected from people vaccinated with 2 doses of the Pfizer-BNT vaccine fare poorly against the omicron variant, although vaccinated people with a previous infection fared better.
A study analysing the health records of people with COVID-19 has found that those who were taking SSRI antidepressants were less likely to die from the virus.
There was an 8% reduction for any SSRI, 28% for fluoxetine, & 26% for fluoxetine or fluvoxamine. jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…
The researchers tried to match people taking antidepressants with a group of control patients, based on age, sex, ethnicity, and medical history.
However, this wasn’t a randomised controlled trial, and it’s possible that other unmeasured factors affected the results.
That said, it’s plausible that SSRI antidepressants do reduce the risk of dying from COVID-19, because they have both anti-viral and anti-inflammatory properties. jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…