Ethan Mollick Profile picture
Feb 5 4 tweets 3 min read
The problem with unmoderated online spaces is that a few people will always ruin them. Most conflicts between Reddit can be traced to a handful of active users with a history of angry comments. A mere 0.1% of all Reddits generate 38% of attacks on others, and 1% accounts for 74%.
A second paper shows that, while unrepentant trolls often need to be banned, most other conflict can be fixed by quickly removing bad posts & educating people about why the content is gone. Trolls aside, giving these explanations reduces future bad behavior by most users.
Here is the paper on community conflicts on the web: arxiv.org/pdf/1803.03697…

And here is the one on moderation: dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.114… (which basically boils down to an XKCD comic, as is fitting)
The same thing holds for bad behavior in games: most people who act badly are having a bad day & can improve. It is why I sometimes wish Twitter had more moderation tools, like deleting a bad reply to a tweet & saying why I deleted it, rather than just choosing blocking or muting

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More from @emollick

Feb 5
Management is like a technology that makes companies better, and the source of US business success. 11,000 interviews in 34 countries shows that over 30% of the productivity advantage of US firms comes from better management. But management can be learned! hbs.edu/ris/Publicatio…
Improving management has a long-term impact. A decade ago, teams of consultants introduced basic management practices to some Indian plants & left others as a control. The practices boosted performance then. A followup study shows about half the effects persist 10 years later!
Management training boosts startups success, too! Learning about how to conduct experiments, manage teams, pitch ideas & network all increase growth for startup companies in controlled experiments conducted around the world.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 31
The famous illustration of survivorship bias was not drawn by Abraham Wald (who developed the concept in WWII). It was made for Wikipedia in 2016 of a Ventura bomber, which was mostly retired when Wald wrote his report. Wald had no illustrations, just math ams.org/publicoutreach…
This is likely the first bullet-holed plane illustration of the semi-apocryphal Wald story (he apparently did tell the military to armor where there were no holes, but the story is second hand).

We just forget the earlier illustrations... for some reason.
Incidentally, Abe Wald was the statistics professor in this amazing (and true!) story right out of Good Will Hunting.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 28
This is a paper on how irrational beliefs persist that I think about often.

Bocconi University, like many colleges, has a superstition: if you walk between these lion statues, you won’t graduate. The paper finds 20% of students wouldn’t walk between the lions for $1,000! 1/4
But 80% of students will privately take much less 💰 & break the superstition if others do. They conform from peer pressure, not belief. If others stop acting like they believe, so will they. But the 20% of people who really believe are validated by the 80% who conform. Cycle! 2/
A relevant lesson: as true believers are enabled by others: “...policies that target false beliefs with the intention to change individual & group behavior may face substantial headwinds so long as those false beliefs are validated by the conforming behavior of the majority.” 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Jan 26
We REALLY should be investing in better indoor air filtration; it isn't just for COVID. This paper finds a shocking 26% higher error rate for professional chess players when PM2.5 increases by just 10 μg/m3 (outdoor air in the US & Europe averages over 10 μg, Asia is much higher)
Add that to the research on how much test scores are affected by air conditioning on hot days, and it is pretty clear that good HVAC systems will often pay for themselves in schools, offices, and anywhere else thinking matters.
Here is another example of the effect of low levels of air pollution on our ability to do complex thinking. It sounds funny at first - the speeches of politicians get dumber on high pollution days - but it gets more alarming the more you think about it.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 24
A fact that shows human achievement: Both the hottest & coldest places in the universe have been on Earth in the last decade

CERN’s Large Hadron Collider hit 9.9 trillion Fahrenheit. And an experiment at the Bremen Drop Tower got to 38 trillionths of a degree above absolute zero
For everyone writing “but maybe alien scientists are generating hotter/colder temperatures” - hopefully! But you may also want to read this thread on a depressing resolution to the Fermi Paradox.
For everyone mad about me using Fahrenheit: fine, it was 5.5 trillion degrees Celsius. Not sure how that makes the temperature any more comprehensible, but sure.

However, it is cool that you can bike between the hottest and coldest places in the universe in about two days.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 22
To put the scale of the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs in perspective: it hit the Earth so hard that are likely bits of dinosaurs ON THE MOON!

And this paper shows that those chunks could have survived to now intact, testing it by actually shooting frozen fossils at targets.
But the asteroid likely did not wipe out an advanced dinosaur civilization... probably. (It is surprisingly hard to tell after 65 million years, even radioactive waste would decay away, and the continents themselves have shifted)
One other impact of the dinosaur-killing asteroid: it led indirectly to the Mayan Empire. Mayan cities were located within the 65M year old buried crater of that meteor because the impact changed the geology of the region, giving the area its cenote pools with rare fresh water.
Read 4 tweets

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