"COVID isn't that bad for kids."

To April '21, the estimate of orphanhood is 1.1M, and undoubtedly this number has grown (especially with avg age of death decreasing)

"1.1M orphans? What? That's not possible!"

Let's take a look at this.

Thread:
/1

thelancet.com/journals/lance…
People think of *orphanages* when they think of orphans. This leads to the common belief that an orphan is someone with no parental-role relatives.

And commonly, orphans refer to such children.

However, @UNICEF uses a standard international definition, which I too prefer.
/2
There are many configurations of parenthood. In some cultures, it's the "nuclear family" (mom+dad+kids), in some cultures it's an extended family (including grandparents, for example), and within cultures there are variations (raised by aunt, grandma does the raising, etc)

/3
A *primary* caregiver is someone who has shared but crucial role in supervision, safety, security, and basic needs. A *secondary* caregiver is someone who is regularly tasked by the primary caregiver to fill caregiving roles.

/4
Of course, all of these people are crucial to the development, care, security, and emotional connection to children.

The loss of any of these people, from a regularly babysitting aunt to a full-time caregiving grandparent to a mother or father, is devastating to children.

/5
So using the @UNICEF definition, an orphan is someone who lost a primary caregiver.

Deaths due to COVID have created 1.1M such orphans, and that's before omicron or delta waves.

Realistically, this number is likely 2M as of today and not slowing down.

/6
The estimate of loss of secondary caregivers is about 1.6M such orphans (realistically 3M today).

All children who lose a primary or secondary caregiver experience significant suffering and harm.

/7
Survey after survey of kids tells us that their top concerns, distresses, or challenges are the fear of a loss of a loved one, teacher, caregiver, or parent. And they are worried about the adults' in their lives health. They too, understand they are relatively protected.

/8
But they know what we all know, if they lose a caregiver and experience orphanhood, it is a pain and stress that will change their lives forever.

so please, keep the awful, repugnant phrase "covid isn't that bad for kids" out of your brain.

/fin
(all images are stock photos to the best of my knowledge, and i licensed 3 myself for these tweets as well as using free sites, i hopefully did not publicly use a child's expression of grief at a funeral)

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More from @tylerblack32

Feb 5
Why yes, selective-article grabber, I did thoroughly read the BBC news article about children and NHS referrals, and I have a few comments.

#schoolclosures #UKPolitics #ENGLAND

/1
First, it's important to note that I did what any normal human and not a data robot does when they read an infographic, I faithfully transcribed it using machine-reading software to translate it into Excel. If anyone can find the raw data, thanks.

/2
I then sourced school closures directly from gov.uk

This allowed me to create two lockdown periods (<30% school attendance) and open school periods (>75% attendance)

/3
Read 18 tweets
Feb 4
Update for @mehdirhasan @MehdiHasanShow - she did not, in fact, take her obvious problem of mis-predicting seriously: Here are some of her statements and predictions during this time (Mar 30, 2021)

RECEIPTS:

1/x
“Yes. I truly believe we're panicking way too much about the variants.” (to be fair, was saying if everyone got vaxxed, the bad outcomes from variants would be less). Ironically, this was shared as a reason NOT to get vaccines or worry about variants.

sfgate.com/news/editorspi…
2/x
“It’s an overblown concern that the virus has somehow mutated to a variant that is so transmissible that it is overtaking the population. That is simply not occurring.”

missionlocal.org/2021/03/varian…

3/x
Read 10 tweets
Feb 4
It is about time that national media stop giving @monicagandhi9 a national platform. If her wrong, sweeping statements are intended only for a local audience (they're not, she writes nationally), then she should NOT be amplified nation/world wide.
Btw she wasn't right about that either.
If you watch the clip again, the pieces selected were specifically NOT local, like statememts on California (the state, not her UCSF area), boosters, WaPo articles about delta. There's more! She's predicted that people would only need boosters once every 10y because immune rxn.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 3
🇨🇦New data from: @statcan_eng 🇨🇦

KIDS SPEAK
Aug 2021 survey (12-17yo)

"How has your MH been compared to pre-pandemic?"

60% "same"
20% "better"
20% "worse"

CLAIM "kids say their mental health is worse during the pandemic"

20% worse
80% not worse

DATA does not support CLAIM
Male Gender
67% same / 20% better / 13% worse
TEST OF CLAIM "worse"
13% vs 87% "not"

Female Gender
52% same / 20% better / 28% worse
ADVOCACY CLAIM "worse"
28% vs 68% "not" 68%
Data from: Table 13-10-0806-01 Canadians health and COVID-19, by age and gender, monthly estimates.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 3
I often get accused of saying that I don't think that kids in distress. I wrote this yesterday, I hope this clears up this misconception.

Distress sucks, but distress during distressing times is not pathology.

We worry about its impacts, and what could make it 🔼/🔽

/1
But knowing what I knew prepandemic:

▶️ I'm busiest on school days (all MH ERs are)

▶️ school stress a major issue for ~30% of mental health crises

▶️ kids rate of suicide 🔼40% on school days vs nonschool days

▶️ kids routinely sharing school stressors in my practice

/2
▶️ my commonest prescription is time/pressure off school

▶️ Kids are telling me during this pandemic a variety of things, but rarely is it "I'm glad to be back in person because it's reduced my stress", and unlike some in this space I clinically work with and listen to kids

/3
Read 7 tweets
Feb 2
A devastating thread in which one of my medical communication heroes is exposed for some of the worst messaging about public health ever. For whatever reason, I will no longer trust her opinions.

Try to follow this thread.

/1
If you are ever in a position of power or influence, OR PUBLIC HEALTH, and you say public health must "do the greatest good for the most people" (literally: benefit the majority), you have fallen far astray.

/2
Of course, we want broad benefit from public health policy. It is a good thing to want to benefit the most you can. But, in fact, in public health often our goal is to prevent harm to vulnerable people.

/3
Read 5 tweets

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