Kawasaki_KR-1 Profile picture
Feb 6, 2022 11 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Omicron not looking so "mild" in Japan.

L -> R
Alpha, Delta & Omicron waves

2 lines overlapping for Alpha = ~2% CFR
Same for Delta & Omicron = ~0.3% CFR

Note the differences in Y-axes.

Most seniors got vaccinated after the peak of Alpha wave. Others during the Delta wave.

1/ Image
Omicron wave is likely to peak next wk (likely already did in southern/western 1/3 of the country), so deaths likely to peak in late Feb. Looking like it'll be the deadliest wave so far.

2/ Image
Roughly,

Spring '20: 1k
Summer/Autumn '20: 1k
Winter '20-'21: 7.5k
Spring '21 (Alpha): 7.5k
Summer '21 (Delta): 3k
Winter '22 (Omicron): ~800 so far.

Per case severity is clearly lower relative to pre-vaxx peaks, but high transmissibility makes that less relevant.

3/
If this wave kills 10k, deaths per mil will reach ~230. Not great, but not horrible either. They'll be boosting a lot in Feb/Mar & 5-11 will get theirs in Mar, so that should help some. ~75% of 12-19 have been 2x vaxxed.

4/ Image
Their initial plan to boost 8 mo post-2nd turned out to be a bit too ambitious. They tried to shorten the interval by ~1 mo, but couldn't quite get it done. Maybe a couple of wks earlier than the initial plan at best.

5/ Image
Many reasons for this, but some were legal (Moderna boosters didn't get approved until mid-Dec).

Some were logistics (They had limited Pfizer doses & failed to distribute Moderna boosters, which they had more of, quickly).

6/
Others were political. The prev. vaxx minister was a popular politician who knew how to get things done. The current one is just an useless figure head, as the current admin took the power/control over vaccination back to PM's office & MHLW.

7/
JPN doing so well in Oct~Dec probably made ppl, incl. politicians & bureaucrats, a bit too complacent. Unlike S.Korea (or parts of Europe) which had a late Delta wave or US/UK w/ Delta plateau, there was no pressing need to boost early. Things were looking good back then.

8/ Image
Still others were luck. Because Pfizer was approved much earlier than Moderna, most HCWs & seniors got Pfizer for 1st/2nd, & many seem to be hesitant to go w/ heterologous booster. Moderna having had production/delivery issues, etc. last yr sure didn't help.

9/
So many reasons they haven't gotten boosting up quickly & the current PM will be blamed for some of it, incl. for poor communication.

In any case, they seem to be finally getting their acts together on boosting, so hopefully they can keep it going.🤞

/fin Image
p.s.

For a look at how things are at prefecture/region level (which most won't see discussed in Eng), here's one from yesterday.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Kawasaki_KR-1

Kawasaki_KR-1 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @KawasakiKR11

Dec 9, 2022
RSV hospitalization data from S. Korea.

"Fewer" hospitalization after the skipped season.

The pattern seen in Japan as well (see below).

How come "immunity debt" isn't a thing in E. Asia?

1/
If anything S.Korea had more cases than usual, but fewer hospitalization. That makes sense, given that RSV is worse in <1. Delayed infection is a good thing.

2/

jkms.org/DOIx.php?id=10…
Japan famously had a big RSV wave in 2021 after almost nothing in 2020. And ~normal wave in 2022.

niid.go.jp/niid/ja/10/209…

But...

3/
Read 9 tweets
Dec 7, 2022
What's ironic is that, if you follow the logic of "immunity debt" enthusiasts (charitably, tbf), you end up concluding that "freedom day" was even dumber than we already thought.

1/
For one, we know infection-induced immunity to many of these pathogens is fairly shot-lived. i.e. what happened yrs ago doesn't really matter.

2/
For another, not all pathogens are created equal. Some are more infectious/harder to control.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Jul 21, 2022
Latest genomic surveillance data from Tokyo & Kobe.

Mostly BA.5 at this point, but BA.2.75 also starting to showing up.

For Tokyo, majority of sequences from July are BA.5. Some BA.4/BA.2.12.1 & now BA.2.75.
bousai.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/_res/projects/…
1/
Variant-specific PCR says suspected BA.5 was ~3/4 during 7/5~7/11. Almost all suspected BA.5 for the latest wk (7/12~7/18).

2/
Similar story for Kobe. L452R+ > 80% for 7/11~7/17 (1st table). Majority of sequences (2nd table) from 7/4~7/10 were BA.5. They show BA.2.12.1 under BA.2 in ( ), BA.2.75 in [ ].

/fin
Read 4 tweets
Apr 11, 2022
Mini-thread on JPN Covid mortality data wrt "from" vs. "with".

(Meaning to do this since MHLW advisory board posted some useful data a month ago, so here it is.)

tl;dr: Covid is still the primary cause in majority of reported deaths & Omicron is bad.

1/
MHLW guideline essentially requires all deaths by Covid patients be reported, so the reported #s include some incidental cases. So what % is incidental?

2/
First, data from Kanagawa pref. (pop. 9.2m, 2nd largest) on the "primary" causes of death in Jan/Feb '22 (almost all Omicron).

Primary cause: 53.2%
Not primary cause: 32.1%
Undetermined: 14.7%

Note that "not primary cause" doesn't mean it wasn't a contributing factor.

3/
Read 16 tweets
Apr 9, 2022
JPN ports of entry VOC screening data (focus on Asia & WW).

-SE Asia, esp. Vietnam, remains problematic.

-Despite all the news on China, most so far are HK, not ML China & total % testing + remains quite low.

First, South, Southeast, Central & East Asia.

1/
Western Asia

2/
# & % of VOCs detected by region.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Oct 3, 2020
A former Sanyo/Pana battery engineer, who was on the team that developed 18650 for Tesla, was interviewed by a Tesla fanboy/BEVangelist about the Battery Day.

TL;DR: Nothing ground-breaking. All are minor improvements IF they can work them out.

$TSLAQ
I might get around to summarizing the key points later. Meanwhile, here's the link. The guy is a Tesla owner & a bit of a fanboy himself, but I find his engineer's perspective interesting. Quite different from what lab scientists have said.

$TSLAQ

blog.evsmart.net/tesla/battery-…
Before I get started, the summary by the interviewer says a lot. He likens what Tesla is trying to do to their attempt at "kaizen". Nothing radical.

Here we go.

1. cylindrical: A surprise. No advantage over others. Maybe being tabless will help w/ cooling.
$TSLAQ
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(