Kawasaki_KR-1 Profile picture
Feb 6 11 tweets 4 min read
Omicron not looking so "mild" in Japan.

L -> R
Alpha, Delta & Omicron waves

2 lines overlapping for Alpha = ~2% CFR
Same for Delta & Omicron = ~0.3% CFR

Note the differences in Y-axes.

Most seniors got vaccinated after the peak of Alpha wave. Others during the Delta wave.

1/ Image
Omicron wave is likely to peak next wk (likely already did in southern/western 1/3 of the country), so deaths likely to peak in late Feb. Looking like it'll be the deadliest wave so far.

2/ Image
Roughly,

Spring '20: 1k
Summer/Autumn '20: 1k
Winter '20-'21: 7.5k
Spring '21 (Alpha): 7.5k
Summer '21 (Delta): 3k
Winter '22 (Omicron): ~800 so far.

Per case severity is clearly lower relative to pre-vaxx peaks, but high transmissibility makes that less relevant.

3/
If this wave kills 10k, deaths per mil will reach ~230. Not great, but not horrible either. They'll be boosting a lot in Feb/Mar & 5-11 will get theirs in Mar, so that should help some. ~75% of 12-19 have been 2x vaxxed.

4/ Image
Their initial plan to boost 8 mo post-2nd turned out to be a bit too ambitious. They tried to shorten the interval by ~1 mo, but couldn't quite get it done. Maybe a couple of wks earlier than the initial plan at best.

5/ Image
Many reasons for this, but some were legal (Moderna boosters didn't get approved until mid-Dec).

Some were logistics (They had limited Pfizer doses & failed to distribute Moderna boosters, which they had more of, quickly).

6/
Others were political. The prev. vaxx minister was a popular politician who knew how to get things done. The current one is just an useless figure head, as the current admin took the power/control over vaccination back to PM's office & MHLW.

7/
JPN doing so well in Oct~Dec probably made ppl, incl. politicians & bureaucrats, a bit too complacent. Unlike S.Korea (or parts of Europe) which had a late Delta wave or US/UK w/ Delta plateau, there was no pressing need to boost early. Things were looking good back then.

8/ Image
Still others were luck. Because Pfizer was approved much earlier than Moderna, most HCWs & seniors got Pfizer for 1st/2nd, & many seem to be hesitant to go w/ heterologous booster. Moderna having had production/delivery issues, etc. last yr sure didn't help.

9/
So many reasons they haven't gotten boosting up quickly & the current PM will be blamed for some of it, incl. for poor communication.

In any case, they seem to be finally getting their acts together on boosting, so hopefully they can keep it going.🤞

/fin Image
p.s.

For a look at how things are at prefecture/region level (which most won't see discussed in Eng), here's one from yesterday.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Kawasaki_KR-1

Kawasaki_KR-1 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @KawasakiKR11

Oct 3, 2020
A former Sanyo/Pana battery engineer, who was on the team that developed 18650 for Tesla, was interviewed by a Tesla fanboy/BEVangelist about the Battery Day.

TL;DR: Nothing ground-breaking. All are minor improvements IF they can work them out.

$TSLAQ
I might get around to summarizing the key points later. Meanwhile, here's the link. The guy is a Tesla owner & a bit of a fanboy himself, but I find his engineer's perspective interesting. Quite different from what lab scientists have said.

$TSLAQ

blog.evsmart.net/tesla/battery-…
Before I get started, the summary by the interviewer says a lot. He likens what Tesla is trying to do to their attempt at "kaizen". Nothing radical.

Here we go.

1. cylindrical: A surprise. No advantage over others. Maybe being tabless will help w/ cooling.
$TSLAQ
Read 8 tweets
Sep 29, 2020
My take on key drivers of batt. cost reduction (outside China).

Roughly,

2012~2015: declining JPY/USD.

2012~2017: Pana (18650) & AESC (Leaf) scaling .

2017~18: Pana (GF1/2170) scaling.

2018~: others scaling.

1/x
Volume-weighted ave. may still be dropping, but Tesla itself probably hasn't seem much cost reduction recently, while others are catching up.

Up-to-date METI data (i.e. 18650) here. (note: they include more expensive hybrid cells as well.)
2/x
ImageImage
Personally, I find auto vs. non-auto Li-ion cell cost comparison interesting. You could say that the huge decline in (auto) battery cost early was just auto catching up w/ non-auto (despite hyping by BNEF, etc.)
3/x
Image
Read 7 tweets
Sep 26, 2020
This week's installment of Japanese Tesla listings/sales. #Tesla #CYAZ #テスラ #モデル3

TL;DR: EoQ rush seems muted. Backlog cleared.
S/X/3 summary.

Little going on w/ inventory S/X. I suspect most S/X delivery of this Q happened in Aug. S/3 3rd party listings continue to increase. Most used sales are at the low end of price ranges. Image
Here are what we know wrt Q3.

1. No shipment of 3 since Nov., so backlog is 3 Qs worth.
2. Some S/X backlog, but that's prob. ~100.
3. Those who ordered in July have taken deliveries.

Here are the reported orders by mo & wk. Early on, sampling rate was ~20%. ImageImage
Read 6 tweets
Sep 26, 2020
Where we are.

Whatever we're doing isn't working.

ImageImage
Forget plug-ins. Can we have good ol' hybrids first?

Image
Good luck to CA (~2 mil cars sold per yr).

Image
Read 4 tweets
Sep 22, 2020
Q. Why is "million mile" battery important?

A. Because batteries don't last as long as the rest of the car.

So, how long do cars last nowadays?

1/x
We've all heard/read about ave. age of cars on the road.

Here are some stats. Latest on US is ~12 yrs old.

Note that used cars are often exported from wealthier countries to less wealthier ones. In case of Japan, almost 1/2 are exported, lowering ave. age of cars.

2/x Image
But that's like median age of population. How about % of old cars?

(I don't have newer data for US, hence data from 2013. It's likely ~50% now).

3/x Image
Read 16 tweets
Sep 20, 2020
Sounds like Avigan (favipiravir) trial is done as expected. I'd like to see the final data first, but this will be a good addition. It's cheap ($100~150/person) & should be widely available, as it's already made in Japan & China (& India & Russia, as I understand).
It's oral & much much cheaper than remdesivir (IV, $2~3k) & much cheaper.

Major downside is its teratogenicity (causes birth defects), but that shouldn't be an issue for the seniors that are hit the hardest by Covid.
Fujifilm vs. Kodak continues.
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

:(