2 lines overlapping for Alpha = ~2% CFR
Same for Delta & Omicron = ~0.3% CFR
Note the differences in Y-axes.
Most seniors got vaccinated after the peak of Alpha wave. Others during the Delta wave.
1/
Omicron wave is likely to peak next wk (likely already did in southern/western 1/3 of the country), so deaths likely to peak in late Feb. Looking like it'll be the deadliest wave so far.
2/
Roughly,
Spring '20: 1k
Summer/Autumn '20: 1k
Winter '20-'21: 7.5k
Spring '21 (Alpha): 7.5k
Summer '21 (Delta): 3k
Winter '22 (Omicron): ~800 so far.
Per case severity is clearly lower relative to pre-vaxx peaks, but high transmissibility makes that less relevant.
3/
If this wave kills 10k, deaths per mil will reach ~230. Not great, but not horrible either. They'll be boosting a lot in Feb/Mar & 5-11 will get theirs in Mar, so that should help some. ~75% of 12-19 have been 2x vaxxed.
4/
Their initial plan to boost 8 mo post-2nd turned out to be a bit too ambitious. They tried to shorten the interval by ~1 mo, but couldn't quite get it done. Maybe a couple of wks earlier than the initial plan at best.
5/
Many reasons for this, but some were legal (Moderna boosters didn't get approved until mid-Dec).
Some were logistics (They had limited Pfizer doses & failed to distribute Moderna boosters, which they had more of, quickly).
6/
Others were political. The prev. vaxx minister was a popular politician who knew how to get things done. The current one is just an useless figure head, as the current admin took the power/control over vaccination back to PM's office & MHLW.
7/
JPN doing so well in Oct~Dec probably made ppl, incl. politicians & bureaucrats, a bit too complacent. Unlike S.Korea (or parts of Europe) which had a late Delta wave or US/UK w/ Delta plateau, there was no pressing need to boost early. Things were looking good back then.
8/
Still others were luck. Because Pfizer was approved much earlier than Moderna, most HCWs & seniors got Pfizer for 1st/2nd, & many seem to be hesitant to go w/ heterologous booster. Moderna having had production/delivery issues, etc. last yr sure didn't help.
9/
So many reasons they haven't gotten boosting up quickly & the current PM will be blamed for some of it, incl. for poor communication.
In any case, they seem to be finally getting their acts together on boosting, so hopefully they can keep it going.🤞
/fin
p.s.
For a look at how things are at prefecture/region level (which most won't see discussed in Eng), here's one from yesterday.
A former Sanyo/Pana battery engineer, who was on the team that developed 18650 for Tesla, was interviewed by a Tesla fanboy/BEVangelist about the Battery Day.
TL;DR: Nothing ground-breaking. All are minor improvements IF they can work them out.
$TSLAQ
I might get around to summarizing the key points later. Meanwhile, here's the link. The guy is a Tesla owner & a bit of a fanboy himself, but I find his engineer's perspective interesting. Quite different from what lab scientists have said.
Volume-weighted ave. may still be dropping, but Tesla itself probably hasn't seem much cost reduction recently, while others are catching up.
Up-to-date METI data (i.e. 18650) here. (note: they include more expensive hybrid cells as well.) 2/x
Personally, I find auto vs. non-auto Li-ion cell cost comparison interesting. You could say that the huge decline in (auto) battery cost early was just auto catching up w/ non-auto (despite hyping by BNEF, etc.) 3/x
Little going on w/ inventory S/X. I suspect most S/X delivery of this Q happened in Aug. S/3 3rd party listings continue to increase. Most used sales are at the low end of price ranges.
Here are what we know wrt Q3.
1. No shipment of 3 since Nov., so backlog is 3 Qs worth. 2. Some S/X backlog, but that's prob. ~100. 3. Those who ordered in July have taken deliveries.
Here are the reported orders by mo & wk. Early on, sampling rate was ~20%.
A. Because batteries don't last as long as the rest of the car.
So, how long do cars last nowadays?
1/x
We've all heard/read about ave. age of cars on the road.
Here are some stats. Latest on US is ~12 yrs old.
Note that used cars are often exported from wealthier countries to less wealthier ones. In case of Japan, almost 1/2 are exported, lowering ave. age of cars.
2/x
But that's like median age of population. How about % of old cars?
(I don't have newer data for US, hence data from 2013. It's likely ~50% now).
Sounds like Avigan (favipiravir) trial is done as expected. I'd like to see the final data first, but this will be a good addition. It's cheap ($100~150/person) & should be widely available, as it's already made in Japan & China (& India & Russia, as I understand).