Thread by @MalcolmNance

My Assessment fm Kyiv: #UkraineCrisis if Putin wants to take this country by force. My prelim findings: Russian forces are formidable & may be able to take Chernihiv-Sumy-Kharkiv-Luhansk-Donetsk axis but at massive cost & can take Kyiv at a terrible cost. Insurgency will follow.

https://twitter.com/meetthepress/status/1490354631511322625

Initial assault will likely come from simultaneous: 1) Nation blinding Cyber atk on cell/internet/TV. 2) Ballistic msl attacks (SS-21, SS-26) & Kalibr cruise msls & drones on UKR bases 3) Air supremacy blitz/fighter sweeps on airbases in Eastern & central Ukraine. 4) Land War

Land War options: 1) LIMITED-Armor attack w/PDR rebels to take last of of Donetsk/Luhansk. Russian army will link up Crimea region by taking Kherson-Melitopol-Mariupol axis to Donetsk. 2) SERIOUS- Seize all East border via Chernihiv-Sumy-Kharkiv axis fm E/NE & link to Donbas.

3) FULL SCALE - Option 2 plus seize Kyiv fm Belarus by Airborne/airmobile/Armor assault on D-day & take Odessa by Amphib landing/Airborne assault fm Crimea. Seize Lviv fm Brest. Force new Quislings/pro-Moscow Government to surrender remainder of Ukraine ... That won’t happen.

Land Phase Zero - Objective Kyiv: Fm Belarus attack on 3 fronts. WEST: move S fm Yelsk to encircle Kyiv fm NW @Khorosten, W @Zhytomyr & mv S. CENTRAL: Assault S via Chernobyl fm Rechitsa. EAST: Fm Klimovo atk UKR forces NE & E of Chernihiv & secure Ru E Flank @ Shosta & Konotop

EAST: 6th Combined arms army (CAA) fm Kursk take Sumy then push onto Kyiv. Link up w/ Kilmovo force. 41st CAA S of Kursk takes Kharkiv. Links south to Luhansk & try to cut UKR Donbas Task Force off. Push W/SW to Dnipro town & river.

Kyiv: Spetnaz & airborne could seize Kyiv-Boryspil Airport & military fighter base followed by Airborne & helicopter assault directly into the city at key points. Street to street fighting till armor link up. Intensely Bloody for Russia. Could also fail.

Kyiv will become a Molotov Cocktail party. Imagine Chechnya 3.0. Roads are an IED nightmare. No place will be safe for Russians. West Ukraine will be insurgent paradise. Follow on Russian Forces will occupy … maybe. Ukrainians are FIERCE. They will fight “With their teeth”.

Many more NATO anti tank & anti air weapons will flow cross west borders fm Hungary, Romania, Poland.
NATO Stingers & Javelins should make Putin hesitate. He has no real casus belli. Burning tank columns look bad on BBC/CNN & Russia Today.

WILL INVASION HAPPEN? Only if Putin views destruction of Russian economy, Energy sales & Ukraine as in his long term interest. Don’t rely on common sense or rationale. I’ll leave the Go-NO Go possibilities in his head to experts like @McFaul.