Thread by @TihoBrkan

Wisdom is often invisible in life and investing because we want to remove or subtract undesired outcomes.

“I have used all my life a wonderfully simple heuristic: charlatans are recognizable in that they will give you positive advice, and only positive advice.” — Nassim Taleb

I don't tweet often about wonderful ideas we will throw our hard-earned capital into because the majority of the opportunities are not wonderful.

Instead, we try to subtract actions that we are more certain are wrong or undesired, instead of adding actions we think are right.

To paraphrase Einstein, geniuses attempt to solve complicated problems, while the wise avoid them.

Let's face it: there is nothing more complicated than predicting the future in the world of investment.

Charlatans have all of the answers: what to buy & where to invest.

Wise investors who have been around for a while (let us say for at least a couple of long-term cycles if not longer) do the opposite.

They are far less certain of addition (what to do, where to invest, what is popular), but far more certain of subtraction (what to avoid).

Not all mistakes can be prevented & not all traps can be sidestepped but easy & avoidable ones should be done without second-guessing.

That is why wisdom is invisible: when removing a mistake you won't see it as growth in the brokerage statement.

However, it's Buffet's rule #1.

“In practice it is the negative that’s used by the pros: chess grandmasters usually win by not losing; people become rich by not going bust (particularly when others do); religions are mostly about interdicts; the learning of life is about what to avoid.” — Nassim Taleb