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Feb 7 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
EU officials discussing LNG tankers as Russia alternative. Chancellor Scholz meets Biden.

Biden met with Qatari Emir to ask for Europe to be supplied with LNG

Qataris said no spare capacity, tied up in l-term contracts with eg Japan

US asked Japan to allow diversion to Europe
Japan, the biggest LNG importer in the world, says considering diversion to help Europe in cutoff

Meanwhile Xi and Putin met on Friday at Olympics, with Chinese promising to mop up extra Russian supplies, eg, if there is an embargo on Moscow
While UK not physically dependent on Russian pipelined gas, like EU (40%ish), price paid certainly depends on this Great Gas Game going on in background of tensions on Ukraine’s border…

Both EU & UK moved away from l-t contracts towards “efficiency” of market spot prices…
… result of this had been super low prices … record low prices in May 2020 of 9 pence per therm… now 180p, having peaked above 300p. Still 3 times normal range of around 60p.

(Chart via @refinitiv)
exploring combination of Europe, including UK, having shifting away from long term gas supply contracts (and in UK closing storage capacity) at very moment when net zero meant a period of increased dependence in transition on that gas… & centrality in current inflation shock…
And a picture of Chancellor Scholz on the plane over from Berlin chatting to journalists on his way to meet Biden… in what could be a sweatshirt, but might be his PJs… important meeting for Re Ukraine, has, inflation etc

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More from @faisalislam

Faisal Islam Profile picture
Feb 9
Just researching an mathematical game theory-political thesis…

That the House of Commons rules create [errr, “inadvertently”] an incentive to lie…

Digging around Erskine May, which is now published, there’s some eye openers on there in the rules…

erskinemay.parliament.uk/section/4874/l…
“Expressions when used in respect of other Members which are regarded with particular seriousness, generally leading to prompt intervention from the Chair and often a requirement on the Member to withdraw the words, include ..charges of uttering a deliberate falsehood.”…
Actually in the rules - the Speaker may have a bit more power to intervene… “generally” if he really wanted to…

In past MPs asked to rephrase allegation of regular misuse of statistics at the dispatch box, but an allegation of ‘spectacular insincerity’ was tolerated… Image
Read 4 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
Feb 3
New energy cap just about to be announce - and the Treasury response, and the Bank of England rate decision - all in next hour - follow live page here… bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-6…
NEW ofgem announce energy price cap will rise by £693 for typical household annually in April to £1917 for dual fuel £2017 for prepayment. Huge rises - will send inflation closer to 7%
Chancellor explaining how he will try to help mitigate - says its for Bank of England to deal with inflation…

NEW: £350 support consisting of

£200 rebate in October to be repaid over 5 years at £40 per year …

£150 non repayable rebate council taxes for 4/5 households
Read 15 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
Feb 2
Levelling Up thoughts from earlier

v interesting thing here acknowledgement of one of worst records of major economies on regional inequality, and in fact become worse in recent years

But can entrenched economic geography change without lots of spend?

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
This is from the White Paper - UK worst of G7 nations for regional inequality as measured by ratio of richest fifth of council areas to poorest fifth - and thats got worse over past decade in the UK, but in Germany, Belgium, Japan, Spain, Portugal, gap has closed…
This is a related chart from @NIESRorg
… UK inter regional inequality declining last century before going into reverse since 1990s… whereas Germany closes the east-west gap in same time spectacularly…

researchgate.net/profile/Andre-…
Read 8 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
Feb 2
story I did last month about “Cost Deferral Mechanism” loans meant to smooth energy bills, that we appear to be getting, pointing to the delicate politics of spreading the oil price shock over a few years… bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Video from last nights #BBCNewsSix explaining the price pressures imported into UK at “Energy Island” the Isle of Grain, where massive tankers of liquefied gas were arriving. A record number came to the UK in January, mainly from the USA:
Going through some of the factors going into the Ofgem energy price cap rise, and the Government’s options to mitigate with a bar chart, which the geniuses at BBC graphics matched to my bar scarf…
Read 11 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
Jan 28
Lorry queues at Dover, due to ferry cancellations and post Brexit customs checks/ paperwork on outgoing lorries, truckers tell my colleague @BBCChrisMorris who has been looking at the almost regular use of Dover TAP queues this month:

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Here’s what I’ve been told about this.

should be said, on both sides of border, up until last week, officials had been pleasantly surprised re new incoming (ie EU to UK) checks seemed to settle ok. “Turnbacks” of lorries with incorrect paperwork 30%ish in 1st week, down to 5ish%
3 separate things

1. New UK checks incoming, some paperwork required at eg Calais - seems smooth, tho traffic low. Awaiting stats.

2. New UK checks eg off M20, described as “black box” -little info emerging re some long import delays

3. Dover TAP activated repeatedly outbound
Read 10 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
Jan 27
“Dismal year” for UK car production as global chip shortage bites - worst for 65 years @SMMT
… though avoiding No Deal tariffs etc has released investments in future electric capacity for future…
bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
1956 was the last time we saw so few cars produced, also the year that the UK lost its title as being the world’s biggest exporters of cars… to Germany.

(German post-war success in part, eg Volkswagen, down to RAF Major Hirst restarting Beetle production at Wolfsburg)
1956 was also the Suez crisis, which brought petrol rationing, and led to the creation of the fuel efficient Mini, which in 2021, under German ownership, was the UK’s most exported car….
Read 4 tweets

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