* We'll start with a view of all metrics, including Cases
* 2021 Winter Wave cases declining rapidly from their peak - 280% higher than the previous C19 record
* However, C19 hospital census peaked at only 95% of the previous record
2/n
2/6 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3
Now just the hospitalization metrics:
* Left axis = hospital census
* Right axis = everything else
* ICU peaked at 72% of the previous record
* Vents peaked at 52% of the previous record
* Fatalities are actual thru 1/1, projected thru 1/15
3/n
2/6 TX Severe outcomes - Page 4
* Jan 1st 2 weeks are based on 80-95% of them having been reported, & estimating what is left
* 2nd half of January is TBD, but it looks unlikely we see any day over 300 fatalities. Which lines up with the ICU & Vent #s we already know
4/n
2/6 TX Severe outcomes - Page 5
* Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is the rate of cases sent to the State DSHS vs Fatalities attributed to C19
* CFR differs from Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) which estimates all infection - asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic, home tests, etc
5/n
2/6 TX Severe outcomes - Page 6
* I tweaked this chart - CFR now by dividing the 7DMA of (today plus the subsequent 6 days of fatalities) over today's Case 7DMA
* It really smoothed out CFR
* CFR is very accurate through Jan 8. Look how it bottomed out first half of Omicron.
2/6 TX Severe outcomes - Page 7
* CFR @ 0.3% is significantly less than seasonal flu. Let that sink in
* CFR will stay flat through 2nd week of January and then rise but will stay below 1% for most of the month.
7/n
2/6 TX Severe Conclusion
With Cases being 280% of previous record, while ICU/Vents being 72%/52%, I've said it before - Omicron is a casedemic
Will know in a couple of weeks, but fatalities are also looking to come in below previous waves - again despite 280% more cases
8/end
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Battleground states - 2024 President
10/22/2024 Summary
1/n
* Summarizes the analysis I've done on all 7 states
* Spread & Movement is based on last 10 polls in each state
* Trump has a clear lead in 5 of 7 battlegrounds
* Movement is to Trump in 5 of 7 battlegrounds
Comparing polls on Oct 22 of both 2016 & 2020 with their final results:
* Trump's Oct 22, 2016 polling underestimated him by an average of 5.7 points
* Trump's Oct 22, 2020 polling underestimated him by an average of 3.1 points
2/n
Battleground state summary - Page 2
* Avg movement 2016+2020 - Trump +4.4
* If I do regression, 2016 --> 2020 --> 2024 (polls getting better at capturing Trump Vote), I can project 2024 movement of Trump +1.9
* Regression projects Trump wins all 7 by 2.0 to 3.5 points
* Continued strengthening of traffic numbers the past month
* Within a few points of clawing all the way back
* Forecasting through the Thanksgiving Holiday
* Total number of passengers who have flown in the past 30 days is 96.3% of 2019. In the past 3 months its 94.6%
* You can see it in the 7DMA % vs 2019 chart, the blue line has been all over that 95% line since Labor Day
* Today's 7DMA is 97.45%
2/n
11/21 Airlines Page 3
* As I've stated before, comparisons between 2019 & 2022 are tricky. Because Holidays shift dates and/or days every year. 2020 was a leap year, so +2 days right there
* These 2 charts compare 1) #s as TSA reports them & 2) #s as reported historically
* Positive tests continue their slow rise into the mid 2K per day range
* Hospitalization leading indicators showing a very gentle uptick. Spring mini-bump may be here
* C19 Fatalities in April 2022 will be an all time low
5/16 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.
As of 5/6:
* Positivity rate @ 6.39%
* 2188 positive tests 7DMA, rising to mid 2Ks in next 5-7 days. At height of Omicron that number was 80K
* Testing 7DMA running a consistent historically low 34K per day.
2/n
5/16 - Testing & Cases
* 34K tests per day is 14% of what TX was receiving at the height of Omicron
* Interesting to see the interaction of end of school with mild spread. Will testing rise?
* Batch reported cases in line with testing, now at 2.5K per day & slowly rising
* 3 Weeks since federal mask mandate was struck down
* 8 straight weeks of 2022 7DMA traffic being north of 2 million and also being between 87-91% of 2019 traffic
* Demand is north of 100% of 2019, but supply still isn't there
The 7 day moving avg continues in this consistent narrow band, currently sitting at 2.10 Million passengers per day the past 7 days, and at 89% of 2019 numbers.
Expect these numbers to rise significantly through Memorial Day.
2/n
5/11 Airlines Page 3
Long term traffic numbers are strong - the 70 day Moving Avg is at an all time C19 high of 2.09M and slowly rising - basically inline with the 7 day average.
The industry is basically back to what it was pre-covid, just a little smaller.
* Slowly rising positivity rate plus falling testing = same number of positive tests er'e day
* Hospitalizations continue to set new all time lows
* A couple of weird numbers to explain
4/3 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.
* 2 tweets on testing today
As of 3/31:
* Up to 2.48% from 2.14% last week
* Day number 24 below the previous all time low of 2.60% set on 6/7/21
* So its slowly climbing but because fewer people are getting tested...
2/n
4/3 - Testing Part 2
* The number of total positive tests has been running right between 1100 and 1150 per day for the past 2 weeks.
* Outside of 4th of July 2021 and Winter Freeze 2021, we've never seen PCR testing this low. Nobody is getting tested right now.