seems like what he's actually saying is we all know that gas pipelines are trivially easy for even tiny states like estonia to blow up if they decide the russo-german relationship is too cozy
one needn't read much subtext to understand that biden's comments are a threat. if russia invades ukraine, germany gets to choose between being pro-russian and freezing without gas in the winter, or anti-russian and freezing without gas in the winter.
im sure biden will walk back the statement in like 30 minutes, but as with many of his silly statements that he later walks back, i suspect this is one of those "lol jk, but srsly" kinds of things
"no no no we meant we'd work collaboratively with our partners, of course, of course, we were not intentionally making people wonder if we would just lowkey blow up an undersea pipeline to spite the russians"

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More from @lymanstoneky

Feb 8
Lots of people saying this isn't unusual.

I know.

A few things tho:
1) I dislike it in general and favor stricter rules limiting athlete-shopping
2) I have less critique of lower-tier athletes looking for an Olympic shot. Gu was a sure thing for the US team though!
3) Imagine it's 1936. A German-born American athlete who is a "maybe" for the US team going and getting onto idk the Swiss team is a historical irrelevancy. A German-born American athlete who is a strong contender for gold choosing the Nazis is different.
"You don't complain about B-list US athletes competing for tiny countries which are politically irrelevant or US allies!" is not exactly a critique of why it might be bad as an American to align with the genocidal autocracy with an open policy goal of annexing democracies.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 8
this is some very absurd whataboutism since, yes, you should absolutely be made at these companies, and thus are perfectly justified in being irritated at the american athletes choosing blood over creed.
choosing the allegiance of race nationalism over and against the allegiance of civic nationalism is an embarrassment, and its what china is urging chinese people around the world to do.
"you're just overseas chinese, you're still chinese, you're still connected to us, you're one of us, you should be loyal to us"

but why, when you were raised and reared elsewhere? when the country that gave you life and liberty was something else?
Read 9 tweets
Feb 8
I was today years old when I learned that a big reason France remains so deeply invested in Niger in terms of geopolitics is that Niger remains France's #1 source of imported uranium to fuel its reactors.
Most of the rest of its uranium comes from Central Asia.... via Russia.
That is to say, a nontrivial share of France's energy is being imported through Russia, much as German gas is. Now I assume France keeps some generous stockpiles and there are other sources out there, so it's a far less precarious dependence....
Read 4 tweets
Feb 7
There's an #NBERday paper out today arguing that because COVID interrupted access to contraception and abortion, low-income women's fertility may have actually RISEN in 2021.

I... am skeptical. Let us discuss. nber.org/papers/w29722
So first off, this is not a study of, say, vital statistics by education, or something like it proxying for social class or income. We have that data for 2020, and we have it for 2021 for a few states, so we'll get to it momentarily.
Rather, this study uses data from Planned Parenthood centers in Michigan + a longitudinal study of contraceptive usage by low income women in Michigan to directly look at how contraceptive usage changed during COVID.
Read 36 tweets
Feb 7
This is a good thread on European gas dependency, and it testifies to why the US should be pushing even harder to prevent new pipelines from Russia: because it makes it too easy for Europe to stay dependent when they need a painful transition.
Europe does not have enough gas to meet its energy needs.

The solutions to this are either:

Import a lot of gas and render your foreign policy totally dependent on Russia's whims...

... or find other energy sources.
European countries ARE finding other energy sources! But they have critically downweighted the possible costs of importation because they act as if the era of great power conflict is over.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 28
This is a nice illustration of a little issue that is underappreciated:

The scale of "births to women who arrived in America while pregnant or conceived immediately upon arrival" is a whooooole lot bigger than "nonresident births" would imply.
This is sometimes called "birth tourism" but I don't think that's a valid framing. Often it's recent immigrants, often legal, having a child upon arriving. "We're Americans now, let's make an American!"
Or it'll be something like "I'm pregnant, we've been considering moving to America for a while, WE NEED TO DO IT BEFORE THE BABY IS BORN" etc
Read 5 tweets

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