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Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
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Feb 8 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Lots of people saying this isn't unusual.

I know.

A few things tho:
1) I dislike it in general and favor stricter rules limiting athlete-shopping
2) I have less critique of lower-tier athletes looking for an Olympic shot. Gu was a sure thing for the US team though!
3) Imagine it's 1936. A German-born American athlete who is a "maybe" for the US team going and getting onto idk the Swiss team is a historical irrelevancy. A German-born American athlete who is a strong contender for gold choosing the Nazis is different.
"You don't complain about B-list US athletes competing for tiny countries which are politically irrelevant or US allies!" is not exactly a critique of why it might be bad as an American to align with the genocidal autocracy with an open policy goal of annexing democracies.
So here for example. Do I care that Americans went and played for countries that are no threat to American interests, often even allies, maybe even got a medal or two here or there? No. Whatever. I don't LOVE it, but it's harmless.
Do I care about an international celebrity extremely publicly crapping on the country that raised her and made her the athlete she is in order to bring honor to the reich and the fuhrer?

I mean.... yes? Yes, I do? And that doesn't seem hypocritical to me at all?
So my view is we SHOULD ASSUME that Gu is obeying Chinese law. We should NOT assume she is a criminal. So we should ASSUME she renounced her US citizenship. Anything else assumes she is breaking Chinese law.

However....
It is of course ENTIRELY possible (even likely) that China is so desperate to feel big and important and so obsessed with medaling in their local Olympics that they are lowkey suspending enforcement of their own laws in order to recruit some athletes.
But, we should assume people are innocent of crimes until proven guilty, and thus we should not accuse Gu of any crimes, and should assume she is complying with Chinese law, and thus we should view her as someone who has renounced her American citizenship.
If she wants to publicly explain to the Chinese people that she got special treatment that is legally denied to all their friends and family members in the US and Canada and Singapore and Malaysia and elsewhere, she can do so. Until then, let's assume she's a law-abiding...
.... citizen of the People's Republic of China.
I mean yes, the case of Gu is obviously more irritating than the case of Zhu Yi, because Gu is an actual loss for the US. This is not some massive own.

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More from @lymanstoneky

Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
Feb 8
this is some very absurd whataboutism since, yes, you should absolutely be made at these companies, and thus are perfectly justified in being irritated at the american athletes choosing blood over creed.
choosing the allegiance of race nationalism over and against the allegiance of civic nationalism is an embarrassment, and its what china is urging chinese people around the world to do.
"you're just overseas chinese, you're still chinese, you're still connected to us, you're one of us, you should be loyal to us"

but why, when you were raised and reared elsewhere? when the country that gave you life and liberty was something else?
Read 32 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
Feb 8
I was today years old when I learned that a big reason France remains so deeply invested in Niger in terms of geopolitics is that Niger remains France's #1 source of imported uranium to fuel its reactors.
Most of the rest of its uranium comes from Central Asia.... via Russia.
That is to say, a nontrivial share of France's energy is being imported through Russia, much as German gas is. Now I assume France keeps some generous stockpiles and there are other sources out there, so it's a far less precarious dependence....
Read 4 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
Feb 7
seems like what he's actually saying is we all know that gas pipelines are trivially easy for even tiny states like estonia to blow up if they decide the russo-german relationship is too cozy
one needn't read much subtext to understand that biden's comments are a threat. if russia invades ukraine, germany gets to choose between being pro-russian and freezing without gas in the winter, or anti-russian and freezing without gas in the winter.
im sure biden will walk back the statement in like 30 minutes, but as with many of his silly statements that he later walks back, i suspect this is one of those "lol jk, but srsly" kinds of things
Read 4 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
Feb 7
There's an #NBERday paper out today arguing that because COVID interrupted access to contraception and abortion, low-income women's fertility may have actually RISEN in 2021.

I... am skeptical. Let us discuss. nber.org/papers/w29722
So first off, this is not a study of, say, vital statistics by education, or something like it proxying for social class or income. We have that data for 2020, and we have it for 2021 for a few states, so we'll get to it momentarily.
Rather, this study uses data from Planned Parenthood centers in Michigan + a longitudinal study of contraceptive usage by low income women in Michigan to directly look at how contraceptive usage changed during COVID.
Read 36 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
Feb 7
This is a good thread on European gas dependency, and it testifies to why the US should be pushing even harder to prevent new pipelines from Russia: because it makes it too easy for Europe to stay dependent when they need a painful transition.
Europe does not have enough gas to meet its energy needs.

The solutions to this are either:

Import a lot of gas and render your foreign policy totally dependent on Russia's whims...

... or find other energy sources.
European countries ARE finding other energy sources! But they have critically downweighted the possible costs of importation because they act as if the era of great power conflict is over.
Read 7 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
Jan 28
This is a nice illustration of a little issue that is underappreciated:

The scale of "births to women who arrived in America while pregnant or conceived immediately upon arrival" is a whooooole lot bigger than "nonresident births" would imply.
This is sometimes called "birth tourism" but I don't think that's a valid framing. Often it's recent immigrants, often legal, having a child upon arriving. "We're Americans now, let's make an American!"
Or it'll be something like "I'm pregnant, we've been considering moving to America for a while, WE NEED TO DO IT BEFORE THE BABY IS BORN" etc
Read 5 tweets

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