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Feb 7 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
Good paper @peteirvine 2011. Only: what "other" schemes? All climate geoengineering is illusory (DAC, CCS, re/afforestation). They exist in models, but can't physically reach global scales, given real-world energy & material constraints. SAI is contested.

Hence the predicament.
From Tim's research: renewables and efficiency, the workhorses of climate policy, increase economic production and GHG levels.

Hence the predicament.

Hypothesis 3:

MEER aids structural change to decouple economic production from global metabolic needs.
journals.plos.org/plosone/articl…
@nephologue's other counterintuitive finding: resilience (= the goal of MEER) increases global prosperity and CO2. Resilience prolongs the growth phase at the cost of delaying and deepening collapse.

We need to decide what we want - a question of ethics.

esd.copernicus.org/articles/3/1/2…
@nephologue Two views:

Climate effects (on Earth's radiative balance, after accounting for (in)direct impact on ecology, crop yields, greenhouse gas concentrations, albedo, etc.).

Economic effects (human sustenance).

Tim doubts the former. IMHO it merits research.

@nephologue Context: How we view such policy depends on what counterfactuals we take. @peteirvine models only up to 2xCO2 and 4°C MAT change in Europe. In reality, we'll reach this within decades - and then keep going. Monsoon and jet stream will be disrupted once the Arctic is sea ice free.
@nephologue @peteirvine As top soils heat, the difference between C3/C4 plants becomes vital. Is it possible to slow the decay of the terrestrial carbon sink & advent of Hothouse Earth futures? Some ecological policies may help. We'll need all help possible, as early as possible. newscenter.lbl.gov/2017/03/09/soi…

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Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Feb 8
The Arctic is our ticking time bomb.

Peter Wadhams: "It may be too late to save the Arctic, but if it's too late to save the Arctic, it's too late to save anything. What the world needs now is engineers to do what is needed."

Funding needed now. Thread.

2/ We should be blunt because these questions decide our future. As Peter Wadhams says in his book and on @iconickevin's blog: we know that, institutionalized via the IPCC, it has become social convention to make certain indefensible assumptions in models. kevinhester.live/2017/11/10/ful…
3/ Hand waving online and asking scientists and analysts to take the time to read up on the relevant dynamics may help but won't address what is essentially a question of power and institutional architecture, so just to leave this here.
Read 19 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Feb 7
Why scientists disagree on physical reality: Some have uncritically taken up the political symbolism of "carbon budgets" for "1.5/2°C," a (1) message to mobilize people; and, confusingly, (2) governance metric to permit more(!) business-as-usual. In reality, budgets are negative.
@ScientistRebel1 is correct. Julia is co-author of IPCC AR6 WG1 (physical science basis), ch.3 (mitigation), inspiring scientist-activist. But we need to know that the IPCC has always been about geopolitics. Some history, please read all three (Agrawala):
@ScientistRebel1 The IPCC is a stunning, unprecedented effort by scientists. But like the AGGG, we now artificially extend overcome structures. Climate is too fast-moving for the current climate regime (IPCC, UNFCCC, etc.). Policy innovation, again, is needed. Political scientists, where are you?
Read 10 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Nov 28, 2021
Thanks for nothing
While humanity may not survive a doubling of CO2, economists assume that unsurvivable futures can be treated as essentially trivial costs, barely worth talking about.
Policy over the past 30 years acted as if this weren't insane. Now, the window of action is essentially closed. What else is there to say?
Read 5 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Nov 5, 2021
Current climate research and policy remain shallow and caught in optimist groupthink at every layer. What we should be asking: will we go to war to decarbonize other countries? Urgent, entirely open questions that international law is unprepared to answer.
We've been warning for years that current climate policy is naive as it doesn't reflect thermodynamic and political constraints, and doesn't take its own warning seriously. Extremely glad @MuellerTadzio is writing a book about peaceful sabotage: #friedlichesabotage
Some have been asking these questions, but at the risk of their own reputations and resources: @RoyScranton @scholarswarning etc. Our institutions lack the expertise in science, engineering, and humanities to prepare for what's ahead. newrepublic.com/article/157160…
Read 8 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
May 24, 2021
"Fundamentally, the economists have totally misrepresented the science and ignored it where it contradicts their bias that climate change is not a big deal because, in their opinion, capitalism can handle anything," —incredibly important warning by @ProfSteveKeen
“the repercussions of climate change were foretold in the 1972 publication “The Limits to Growth” — a divisive report on the destructive consequences of global expansion — but economists then and since failed to heed its warnings, preferring instead to rely on market mechanisms.”
“I think we should throw the economists completely out of this discussion and sit the politicians down with the scientists and say these are the potential outcomes of that much of a change to the biosphere; we are toying with forces far in excess of ones we can actually address,”
Read 9 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
May 21, 2021
Is macroeconomics a science? Many of our problems come down to our misuse of economics. Accessible starting point for impactful analysis: @nephologue nephologue.blogspot.com/2018/08/is-mac…
Why this matters: Economics evolved for a growth regime, not for a full world, that approaches biophysical limits to growth. To share + accentuate @KevinClimate's concern: Do the physical climate sciences reflect & address the limitations of economics yet?
Can we learn to use economics in better, more humane ways?

This questions goes beyond natural sciences & engineering: many social scientists, & scholars in the humanities, routinely use sophisticated quantitative & qualitative toolboxes. Let's use them where it matters 🙏
Read 4 tweets

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