Japan solidified a plan to divert LNG to Europe on Ukraine tension, NHK says 🇯🇵

🚢 Japan to seek cooperation from its firms that have stakes in LNG export plants (after ensuring enough domestic supply)
🚢 Still determining volume/timing

H/T @shoko_oda

www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2022…
US officials asked Asian countries to ship their natural gas to Europe as the region grapples with a shortage

There are concerns that Europe may run short of energy should Russia invade Ukraine, an attack Putin has repeatedly denied he’s planning

While it’s still unlikely that Russia will cut supplies to Europe, its biggest customer, the continent would require far more than diverted LNG cargoes from Japan to make up the loss

Russia exported more than 1 and a half times Japan’s LNG imports to Europe and Turkey last year
Still, Japanese importers have already been selling spare supplies to Europe over the last several months due to more attractive prices in the Atlantic

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Other Japanese LNG importers may be eager to receive all their deliveries in order to refill inventories

LNG stockpiles held by Japanese power utilities slipped in the last week, and are sitting ~18% below the four-year average for this time of year, according to METI data
Perhaps most interesting is that it's the 2nd time in just a few months that the Japanese gov't is enacting a plan to cool down a global energy market at the request of the US

Last year, Japan agreed to a US-led initiative to release oil from reserves

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Japan confirms it will cooperate with effort to send LNG supplies to Europe, and that cargoes are already on the way for Feb and March

⚠️BUT, those shipments were previously sold by Japanese due to attractive prices. NOT because of government request ⚠️

nikkei.com/article/DGXZQO…
The US is taking a victory lap after Japan commits to helping Europe
TL;DR:

🇯🇵 Japan says it will divert extra LNG to Europe amid Russia supply concerns

🤷‍♂️ But the move appears to be symbolic, as companies were already selling cargoes to Europe and the limited supply would do little to solve a shortage there

🥇 Govt just trying to take credit

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More from @SStapczynski

Feb 8
The latest US LNG export terminal is preparing to load its first cargo 🇺🇸

🚢The Yiannis vessel arrived at Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass plant in Louisiana
🚢Facility began producing LNG last month, which will cement the US as the world's top exporter

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Great reporting from @SergioChapa on this. He actually went to the LNG plant to take pictures of the vessel and confirm its arrival
Calcasieu Pass holds long-term supply deals with nine international buyers but will be able to sell cargoes made during its months-long startup process on the spot market

Those cargoes will most likely be sold to ease an unprecedented energy crisis in Europe
Read 5 tweets
Feb 5
Qatar is upset that Japan isn’t renewing its LNG contracts
🇶🇦💥🇯🇵

🥊 “You’ll get no sympathy from us the next time you need LNG,” a Qatar official said to Japan in Dec
🥊 Jera let a giant 25-year contract with Qatar lapse last year

Great Nikkei report

nikkei.com/article/DGXZQO…
Qatar became the world’s top LNG supplier thanks largely to Japan

The first Qatar shipment to Japan was delivered to Chubu Electric (one of the owners of Jera) in 1997

But now Japan wants to diversify supply, and requires flexible contracts. That means lower volumes from Qatar
When the Fukushima nuclear plant suffered a meltdown in 2011, Qatar sent more LNG to Japan to make sure it had enough fuel to keep the lights on

Qatar may not be so willing to help next time

“I don’t even want to go to Tokyo,” where Jera’s HQ is located, said the Qatar official
Read 7 tweets
Feb 4
A new U.S. LNG export facility just started production, which will help cement the nation as the world's top exporter of the fuel 🇺🇸🎆🎉

Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass facility in Louisiana produced its first LNG on Jan. 19, according to a FERC filing posted today
The US has been the world's top exporter of the fuel for the last two months as projects ramp-up output and Europe's energy crisis boosts overseas demand

Worth noting: Calcasieu Pass now holds the record for fastest construction of a large greenfield LNG export project

The plant's modular approach to construction has allowed it to move ahead of schedule despite the pandemic and multiple strong hurricanes

Read 6 tweets
Feb 1
The US was the world's top exporter of liquefied natural gas for the second month in a row 🇺🇸

US LNG exports hit a record 7.3 million tons in January as Sabine Pass started a new unit. Strong European demand aided output

Via @SergioChapa

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
New export projects will continue to ramp up production this year, cementing the US as the world's top LNG exporter through much of this decade
Out of the 101 U.S. LNG export cargoes in January, more than a third arrived at European ports, while five went to Latin American destinations and the rest remain in transit, shipping data compiled by Bloomberg shows

Gas-starved Europe has become a top destination for US LNG
Read 4 tweets
Jan 30
New England is getting walloped by another snow storm, and the region is again depending on dirty oil-fired power 🇺🇸🛢️

Oil consumption has been way above normal over the last month as some generators switch from gas, which has surged in price

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
New England power generation by source 👇

The yellow line is oil. In the last few weeks, it has often surpassed cleaner nuclear and is a hair below natgas

Oil generators were producing more than 4.2GW on Thursday, accounting for 25% of power supply. Thats the highest since 2018 Image
Prior to the storm, the liquefied natural gas tanker Cadiz Knutsen anchored in Massachusetts Bay. New England relies on overseas LNG imports to meet heating needs

But LNG shipments are way way more expensive than pipeline gas. Like 10-times more expensive Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 25
The US is prepared to ensure alternative natural gas supplies to Europe covering a potential shortfall from Russia, Biden administration officials said
🇺🇸🤝🇪🇺

🚢 Re-routing supplies could take several days/weeks
🇶🇦 Qatar wouldn’t be able to boost output

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
To be sure, most US LNG supplies are sold to utilities/portfolio players under long-term contracts. They need to have financial incentive to send more to Europe

In fact, some LNG shipments are already diverting away from Europe and going to Asia due to better profit potential
In other words, US LNG tends to go to whoever will pay the most 💰

Remember, the US government has no direct control over American LNG exports or where gas goes. They can negotiate with export projects, but most of their LNG is under contract to non-US firms (like Jera or Gail)
Read 5 tweets

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