Thread by @SStapczynski

The US is prepared to ensure alternative natural gas supplies to Europe covering a potential shortfall from Russia, Biden administration officials said
🇺🇸🤝🇪🇺

🚢 Re-routing supplies could take several days/weeks
🇶🇦 Qatar wouldn’t be able to boost output

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

To be sure, most US LNG supplies are sold to utilities/portfolio players under long-term contracts. They need to have financial incentive to send more to Europe

In fact, some LNG shipments are already diverting away from Europe and going to Asia due to better profit potential

In other words, US LNG tends to go to whoever will pay the most 💰

Remember, the US government has no direct control over American LNG exports or where gas goes. They can negotiate with export projects, but most of their LNG is under contract to non-US firms (like Jera or Gail)

These are all of the US LNG export projects. They’re all privately owned and basically pumping at max capacity (except for two projects that are being commissioned)

That all being said — if Russia does cut off supplies to Europe, gas prices will go through the roof

Traders would send all of their LNG cargoes from the US (and beyond) to Europe in order to take advantage of that sweet sweet 💵 arbitrage 💵