Thread by @SafetyinNumbrz

CORRECTED: COVID is NOT MILD for KIDS. Early in the pandemic, kids seemed safer. Not now. Kid COVID Death Rate > Diabetes, 🫁Flu,🔥Fire, Falls,🏊‍♂️Drowning,☠️Poison,🫀Heart Disease &😰CANCER. It rivals🚗Car &🔫Gun Deaths! You'd use lifevests & kidproof locks, so wear a😷respirator.

Yesterday, I released an incorrect version. I apologize and retract it. Pls replace it w/ this new version. I accidentally included age 18-19 non-COVID deaths before. Now, it is only kids under 18. I'm truly sorry, and hope you will still accept the corrected version. 🙏

Source data is from the US only, and highest COVID death rate (2022) is based upon the same rate all year as it was Jan 1 - Feb 6. Likely (hopefully), this will drop as wave troughs are added to 2022 totals, but nastier variants or reduced protections could keep kid deaths high.

I chose "Selected" major causes of death by excluding rare causes, unreliable rates, birth defects & poorly-categorized deaths. Many parents may already be balancing these risks for their families and can make useful comparisons this way.

By viewer request, here is a new version comparing Kids COVID deaths to the AVERAGE (mean) kids death rates for 5 years. It shows that the pattern is mostly the same, although COVID nominally moved to highest spot. (It's within error estimates, so don't say it's the worst yet.)

Speaking of car & gun deaths, weren't they a lot higher before? Yes, they were MUCH higher in first (incorrect) version. It turns out that many 18-19 died from cars (1480) & guns (2087) in 2020, driving up the avg for whole 0-19 group. We need to help teens make good choices! 🪦

For transparency, here is a detailed explanation of changes, links, sources of error, & how I made the mistake in the first place. Science relies on intellectual honesty & owning my mistakes. I aspire to such rigor. Thx to all willing to help make this better. I welcome feedback.

For ease of use (& fact-checking), here are links referenced in explanation document. Pls reach out w/ questions & issues.
Current sources: (2020 only) wonder.cdc.gov/controller/sav…
(2016-2020) wonder.cdc.gov/controller/sav…
COVID data covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
Archives archive.org

Old Sources (for incorrect retracted version)
(0-19) wonder.cdc.gov/controller/sav…
Academy of Peds publications.aap.org/aapnews/news/8…
Sanity Check for Gun/Car Accident Data
wonder.cdc.gov/controller/sav…

Last note: remember that death isn't the only bad outcome. COVID causes long-term damage in many who survive. We don't have to lockdown everything, but we do need clean air, masks, good HVAC, vaccines & support for the vulnerable.

@threadreaderapp please unroll

Thanks especially to some helpful new friends who inspired data correction, improvements, and easier links for fact checkers. @Shippelt
@zerocovidthai