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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
@DrEricDing
Feb 9, 2022 • 20 tweets • 16 min read • Read on X
⚠️SUB-VARIANT SURGING—Omicron 2.0 is rising—the #BA2 sublineage of #Omicron has *tripled* in one week, dislodging the old Omicron from total dominance—BA2 now at 3.6% and climbing fast. Expect to be dominant by March. Omicron reinfections are possible. 🧵 covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra… ImageImage
2) Omicron subvariant #BA2 now seems to be surging nationwide (pink), especially in the coastal regions of the Us the fastest. This means it’s not a fluke increase. US’s #BA2 trend will follow Europe’s rise for sure. Image
3) I’ve been worried about #BA2 for a while. In 3rd week of January, it was rising in Denmark— it’s now near total dominant in Denmark.
4) Multiple studies show the #BA2 subvariant is much faster transmission than old Omicron. Some say 30% some say ~90-120%, and some say 150% (1.5 time more).
5) Who said #BA2 is 1.5 times more contagious? Denmark’s CDC @SSI_dk said so—and they warned it was extending Denmark’s Omicron wave much longer. Same thing is going to happen in the US which is much much less vaccinated.
6) other tricky thing is that #Omicron #Ba2’s PCR looks like almost any other non-BA1 Omicron because the SGTF shortcut PCR won’t work on BA2. Thus it’s hard to tell apart BA2 from Delta variant without genome 🧬 sequencing.
7) Virus researcher & chief physician of 🇩🇰’s CDC @SSI_dk says you can get **reinfected with #BA2 sub-variant** of #Omicron after being infected with Omicron BA.1. ➡️ This is why we shouldn’t risk COVID or chase mass infection. nyheder.tv2.dk/2022-01-21-ny-… Image
8) It’s also surging in UK 🇬🇧 as well. #Ba2 d doubled in one week. It’s also surging in Netherlands and in Germany and elsewhere. It’s everywhere now- and quickly displacing the old Omicron 1.0.
9) How different is #Omicron BA2 from BA1? #BA2 has **17 additional mutations** that BA1 doesn’t have! There is also a BA3 but that one doesn’t have much difference beyond BA1 and BA2.

HT @WmHaseltine Image
10) Notably, “Each of BA1/2/3 variants is as different from one another as Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and Delta are from one another”! says @WmHaseltine ImageImage
11) BA2 #Omicron is not a child-lineage of BA1 #Omicron. They are more like “cousins” that branched off earlier - hence they are much more different than parent-child versions of each other. This is also why reinfections could be higher. Image
12) If you still have any doubt in your mind about #BA2 being a 2.0 Omicron that will displace the old Omicron and cause a new surge— just look at how #BA2 (aka ‘Omicron 21L’ in the charts) is surging like mad across multiple countries (& this is just late Jan data!). Get ready. ImageImage
13) 🇬🇧 data also shows a higher secondary attack rate in households for #BA2 versus the old BA1 Omicron. And the growth rate is indeed more than doubling per week. Exponential rise will beget exponential trouble - earlier Omicron immunity clearly isn’t slowing it much—not good.
14) Now the real bad news— two new studies say “immunity based on #Omicron-infection is weak for (another) Omicron reinfection” — if unvaccinated ⚠️

This means protection from your earlier Omicron may not be great if unvaccinated! 👀
15) Some relatively good news on #BA2 is that it seems to responds similarly to vaccines as BA1– but it responds well only to 3 vaccine shots if you get a booster. Without booster, the symptomatic efficacy is very poor —13% and that’s not even significantly different from 0.
16) Update on UK #BA2– it has doubled again and it’s now likely ~17% of all cases in England. And it has a much higher attack rate — altogether bad.
17) the reinfection risk of #Omicron is real. We need to take it seriously folks. Don’t feel like you’re invulnerable. That leads to blase attitude and risky behaviors.
18) Further—“results indicate that Omicron infection enhances preexisting immunity elicited by vaccines, ➡️but on its own **may NOT induce broad, cross-neutralizing humoral immunity in unvaccinated** individuals.” ⚠️

Don’t risk #Omicron BA2 if unvaxxed! medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
19) It now seems the @WHO is getting very concerned about #BA2 variant outcompeting and displacing old #Omicron. @mvankerkhove is now warning about likely looming surge. We must be vigilant.

HT @Cleavon_MD.
20) It is now 100% clear that the @WHO needs to declare #Ba2 a high risk “variant of concern”. Dear @mvankerkhove @doctorsoumya @DrTedros @gabbystern @DrMikeRyan — please make it so. VOC declaration of BA2 now ASAP!

See 🧵 below.

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Jun 23
📍 The New York Times Is Failing Its Readers Badly on Covid

📌“Example of ‘science opinion’ run amok in the [NY Times] is a piece… by Zeynep Tufekci, a commentator with no training in biological science or epidemiology… ➡️Tufekci plays into the hands of the anti-science politicians who now seek vengeance on the flimsiest of grounds.”

By GREGG GONSALVES and JOHN P. MOORE
thenation.com/article/societ…Image
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2) “Tufekci also adds to the ongoing pile-on about whether the directive to maintain a distance of six feet from others was needed. Although the precise distance was indeed somewhat arbitrary, there was no possibility of obtaining hard data in the relevant time frame. The six-foot distance was a reasonable assumption based on public health history, and the practice of social distancing for other respiratory pathogens, particularly those spread by droplets. It was also adopted in multiple other countries, for the same reasons.”
3) “The problem here isn’t that Tufekci is questioning the evidentiary basis of the six-foot rule—science and public health cannot progress if we don’t evaluate the results of our work. But that progress is more effective when grounded in good-faith inquiry, rather than the kinds of attacks Tufekci levels against government scientists for doing their best in desperate circumstances. This only serves to bolster the forces who seek to destroy the US public health infrastructure, not make it better.

Tufekci also leaves the impression that she alone realized SARS-CoV-2 was airborne early on. In fact, the debate about transmission was fast and furious within the scientific community at that time”
Read 9 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Jun 17
⚠️Whooping cough has smashed all records in UK🇬🇧 with barely any serious govt actions. These are NEW CASES PER WEEK, not cumulative. Each week smashing previous. Other countries rising too amid anti-vax. Pertussis is also airborne!

Graph @1goodtern
gov.uk/government/pub…
Image
2) And yes it’s airborne damnit. CDC says so.

cdc.gov/pertussis/hcp/…
Image
3) Whooping cough is also extremely contagious. For up to 3 weeks. With UK govt advising staying home for 3 full weeks if no antibiotic treatment. How many people being told that and doing that?

nhs.uk/conditions/who…
Image
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Jun 12
⚠️SURGING COVID cases & hospitalizations in Madrid, Spain🇪🇸—hospitalizations for COVID has now exceeded also 2022-2023. This is the globally surging KP3 variant (US too)—it is highly evasive against past immunity—you’re not immune. Take preventive action.
comunidad.madrid/sites/default/…

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2) New York City’s COVID cases are also increasing, as noted by @emmagf. June is not normal cold and flu season at all. This shows that this KP3 surging despite non-flu season means it’s a troublemaker. Image
@emmagf 3) Hawaii’s ERs also have gotten slammed hard by an off-season COVID surge. This isn’t normal at all for June. This is why we need to be on alert. Image
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Jun 11
📍Breaking—MASK BAN PASSED AGAIN—North Carolina Republicans have again voted to pass a new ban on mask wearing. Only a weak partial medical exemption added for PUBLIC areas—but, on private properties, like at grocery stores or at a workplace, the bill now says people can still be “REQUIRED TO REMOVE MASKS” if demanded by employer or owner (your health be damned). But, thank goodness Halloween masks will still be allowed.
motherjones.com/politics/2024/…Image
2) “Many healthcare professionals have expressed concerns that their patients would not be able to stay safe against the spread of Covid-19 and other infectious diseases.” Image
3) the scary thing is that “The bill, which was drafted in response to people wearing masks at Pro-Palestinian protests, can be passed by the General Assembly **even if Democratic Governor Roy Cooper vetoes** it through an override.”
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Jun 11
⚠️Our future cancer risks of #COVID are emerging and likely real. SarsCOV2 induces several of the same carcinogenic cellular changes as other viruses known to cause cancers. Most cancers take 10-20 years to fully emerge (eg 🚬 or HPV-cervical), but some cancers may emerge sooner.
2) “We are completely under-investigating this virus,” said Douglas C. Wallace, a University of Pennsylvania geneticist. “The effects of repeatedly getting this throughout our lives is going to be much more significant than people are thinking.”
wapo.st/3Rox991
3) We know from studies that Long COVID disease burden is already on par with the burden of heart disease and cancer. Now imagine if LC further stacks additional risks to these other major disease burdens in the decades to come.
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Jun 10
Cool time lapse of a dozen rapid Covid tests—by @jeremyfaust over 11 days. Staggeringly high viral load = rapid bright test line. CDC would have said it’s okay to go out on day 2. What a load of crap, and every epidemiologist I know agrees. #COVIDisnotover
2) this is why I’ve been adamant that @CDCDirector Cohen has morally abdicated CDC’s duty to disease “control and prevention” with her horrible leadership. And yes she was on board with this—she was at the press conference for relaxing Covid rules.
3) here is the full story about how @CDCDirector Cohen has just about done the worst thing to torpedo @CDCgov’s normally stellar reputation. More than Walensky and more than Trump CDC director Redfield.
Read 4 tweets

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