Luca Dellanna Profile picture
Feb 9 8 tweets 3 min read
FACE MASKS

I still hear that studies show that they do not work. But these studies are flawed. Here is why.

1/8 (screenshots from @PandemicBook)
2/8 Studies where only 42% of people in the "mask-wearing" group were actually wearing them are cited as evidence that masks don't work
3/8 The second flaw with masks studies: they are conducted in long-exposure setting (often when participants do not keep the masks on all the time) and then their results are assumed to apply to short-exposure settings too.
4/8 The third flaw of face masks studies: they do not take compounding into account.

The fourth flaw: they do not consider transmission chains.
5/8 Why do face masks work?
6/8 Some more objections regarding face masks
7/8 Some dos and don'ts of face masks
8/8 Face masks messaging & summary

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More from @DellAnnaLuca

Feb 8
My grandma’s apartment is valued at 95k€ ($108k)

The Italian government is paying for a 81k€ ($92k) intervention to improve its energetic efficiency. That’s 85% of the house value. Our cost: 650€ ($740).

And it’s a nation-wide program.

Good luck repaying this national debt.
My problem is not just with the absolute costs but also with the government removing most incentives for landlords to be cost effective.
My Occam's razor for why these incentives:

If you’re a landlord, your buildings just got a free bump in value (after you do the works which are free).

If most parliament members are landlords…
Read 6 tweets
Jan 25
If the expected value of breaking the law is positive, a competitive marketplace selects for psychopaths.

Dangerous.
We don’t just need fines that are more than fees. We also need them to enforce them early.

Because an early fine is small enough to change the behavior of a business without ruining it. Conversely, waiting becomes a lose-lose problem, where to punish a business we destroy it.
A marketplace that selects for psychopaths is not just dangerous.

It’s also a waste, because it doesn’t select for more honest and responsible businesses.

And puts pressure to their managers to select psychopaths, bringing the same pressure to deeper levels. Lose-lose.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 21
CATCHING UP WITH DEATHS

In Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand, and a few more countries, fewer people died during the pandemic than during the average year.

If / once they re-open borders, will deaths “catch up”? Did they only delay the inevitable?

thread 1/7
First of all, green zones' populations are more vaccinated than Europe was in 2020-2021 and omicron is milder than Delta. This means that, even if the green areas got invaded by the virus in 2022 (say), there would be fewer excess deaths than recorded in Europe in 20-21.

2/7
Secondly, a major driver of excess mortality is the overwhelming of the healthcare system.

Green zones can modulate their reopening to travelers from abroad, thus having access to a flatter curve than Europe had in 20-21.

3/7
Read 7 tweets
Jan 12
Excess deaths in the age group 0-14 yo exceed the normal range for the first time since the start of the pandemic (Euromomo data). Image
It's currently at the level of winter 2019 (flu), but the "currently" refers to the latest week of full data, and that is week 48 of 2021, and it's known that child hospitalizations grew up fast in the last days of 2021. Image
.@MillunchickZ prompted me to verify an eventual link with children vaccination

These are the countries in descending order of excess children deaths. 🇨🇭 🇦🇹 (low child vaccination, high November cases) scores low; 🇪🇸 🇵🇹 🇮🇱 (high child vacc, low Nov cases) score high

1/2 Image
Read 4 tweets
Jan 10
The first chapter of the second edition of my book, “Ergodicity”

1/10
2/10
3/10
Read 10 tweets

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