* While the dam is breaking on mandates and I hope they wash away in a flood,
* Still going to monitor the collapse of Omicron throughout the state
* Good riddance, yet Thank You Omicron, and here's why...
2/9 - Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.
As of 1/30:
* Positivity rate 7DMA had declined to 25% and was about to start losing a point a day, every day
* Feb testing numbers will be a straight line down
2/n .
2/9 - Cases are simply reported as they are received by the counties.
Case 7DMA
* now down to 13.8K
* has been down 1/3rd or more from the previous week (WoW) for 11 straight days
* Today down 50% WoW - a 1st in 2 years of watching (outside of winter storms or holidays)
3/n .
2/9 - Hospitalizations
* Covid Admissions free fall continues to accelerate, 7DMA now down 28% week over week (WoW)
* Covid General Census 7DMA down 18% WoW, and there's more where that came from
* Covid % of total beds below 15% at 14.91%
4/n .
2/9 Severe Hospitalizations
* Same comments as 2/7:
* ICU & Vent peaks by far the lowest of any wave
* ICU & Vent in steep decline
* 2020 Winter ICU & Vent comparisons to 2021 will be very favorable towards 2021 in regards to outcomes. 2020 #s will leave 2021 in the dust
5/n
2/9 - Conclusion
* Buh Bye Omicron
* Yours was a bright but brief appearance on the Covid stage
* But I thank Omicron for finally laying waste to the Zero-Covid Paradigm, for virusing through Covid Mandate Theater, & for exposing Vaxports as sheer Idiocracy!
6/end
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* Continued strengthening of traffic numbers the past month
* Within a few points of clawing all the way back
* Forecasting through the Thanksgiving Holiday
* Total number of passengers who have flown in the past 30 days is 96.3% of 2019. In the past 3 months its 94.6%
* You can see it in the 7DMA % vs 2019 chart, the blue line has been all over that 95% line since Labor Day
* Today's 7DMA is 97.45%
2/n
11/21 Airlines Page 3
* As I've stated before, comparisons between 2019 & 2022 are tricky. Because Holidays shift dates and/or days every year. 2020 was a leap year, so +2 days right there
* These 2 charts compare 1) #s as TSA reports them & 2) #s as reported historically
* Positive tests continue their slow rise into the mid 2K per day range
* Hospitalization leading indicators showing a very gentle uptick. Spring mini-bump may be here
* C19 Fatalities in April 2022 will be an all time low
5/16 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.
As of 5/6:
* Positivity rate @ 6.39%
* 2188 positive tests 7DMA, rising to mid 2Ks in next 5-7 days. At height of Omicron that number was 80K
* Testing 7DMA running a consistent historically low 34K per day.
2/n
5/16 - Testing & Cases
* 34K tests per day is 14% of what TX was receiving at the height of Omicron
* Interesting to see the interaction of end of school with mild spread. Will testing rise?
* Batch reported cases in line with testing, now at 2.5K per day & slowly rising
* 3 Weeks since federal mask mandate was struck down
* 8 straight weeks of 2022 7DMA traffic being north of 2 million and also being between 87-91% of 2019 traffic
* Demand is north of 100% of 2019, but supply still isn't there
The 7 day moving avg continues in this consistent narrow band, currently sitting at 2.10 Million passengers per day the past 7 days, and at 89% of 2019 numbers.
Expect these numbers to rise significantly through Memorial Day.
2/n
5/11 Airlines Page 3
Long term traffic numbers are strong - the 70 day Moving Avg is at an all time C19 high of 2.09M and slowly rising - basically inline with the 7 day average.
The industry is basically back to what it was pre-covid, just a little smaller.
* Slowly rising positivity rate plus falling testing = same number of positive tests er'e day
* Hospitalizations continue to set new all time lows
* A couple of weird numbers to explain
4/3 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.
* 2 tweets on testing today
As of 3/31:
* Up to 2.48% from 2.14% last week
* Day number 24 below the previous all time low of 2.60% set on 6/7/21
* So its slowly climbing but because fewer people are getting tested...
2/n
4/3 - Testing Part 2
* The number of total positive tests has been running right between 1100 and 1150 per day for the past 2 weeks.
* Outside of 4th of July 2021 and Winter Freeze 2021, we've never seen PCR testing this low. Nobody is getting tested right now.
* A brief mid-week update on numbers through yesterday
* Pos% mini-bump fizzling out. Testing approaching record lows
* Hospitalizations continue setting record lows
* a 4 tweet thread today to go through the numbers
As of 3/28:
* Minibump up to 2.42%. Upcoming incomplete days show slowing growth
* Testing falls to 47K a day which approaches post-testing industrial complex lows of 43K in Jun 2021. Fewer people getting tested.
* Positive tests super flat at ~1150 per day
2/n
4/7 - Hospitalizations
* Covid Admissions 7DMA at new record low of 134/day, and still declining slightly
* Hospital Census 7DMA under 1000 for the first time ever
* Census % beds used by C19 at new low of 1.5%
* ICU Census approaches 200. Never saw below 400 before now