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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

Feb 6

@realmoney

On @realmoney Feb 04, 2022 | 08:45 AM EST DOUG KASS
Not Transitory and Why I Adjusted My Sails and Grew More Negative on February 1
"It is my view that the odds favor that the rally over the last two days of January may have been a Bear Market rally - providing a great trading

opportunity but not likely the basis for a new Bull Market leg... Unfortunately I suspect January's market weakness was the first shot across the bow and 2022 will likely be a down year for equities - how deep is uncertain. "
- Kass Diary, A Bear Market Rally?

To me, the big

story this week and overnight was not Amazon (AMZN) , it was the rising price of energy products - providing more evidence that inflation is not transitory.
This morning, WTI is +$1.82/barrel to $92.11.
At the core of my negative thrust this week, "A Bear Market Rally" provided

Read 4 tweets

Dougie Kass

@DougKass

Jan 28

@realmoney

Opener on @realmoney realmoney.thestreet.com/dougs-daily-di…
Opportunity Will Soon Be Knocking
* Embrace opportunity, don't shy from it
* When it's time to buy, you won't want to
* Are you kind?
"Well the first days are the hardest days, don't you worry any more

'Cause when life looks like easy street, there is danger at your door
Think this through with me, let me know your mind
Woah-oh, what I want to know, is are you kind?"
- The Grateful Dead, Uncle John's Band

@tomkeene

It is my view that, for several years, market participants have underpriced risk as the proper investment strategy in 2019-2021 was to leverage beta.
It may now be time to conservatively seek alpha.
@tomkeene @jimcramer @ferrotv @lisaabramowicz1 @SquawkCNBC @ScottWapnerCNBC

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

Jan 26

@TSTRMPro

@TSTRMPro
Jan 26, 2022 | 06:20 AM EST DOUG KASS
I Call BS
* More lessons learned
Warren Buffett famously said "you can't tell who is swimming naked until the tide goes out."
If nothing else the recent dive in stock prices has again taught us some important lessons:

* Trust yourself and maintain your risk discipline and stay within your risk profile.
* Never use leverage.
* Do your own homework.
* Listen, whether its technical or fundamental, and develop strong resources.
* Don't rely on commentators who either have no skin in the game

or are trying to sell you a service.
* If commentators do not provide a record of the results of their investment advice - turn off the volume.
* In mature Bull Markets, stick with quality and avoid gewgaws.
* Avoid the herd and "group stink."

Read 9 tweets

Dougie Kass

@DougKass

Jan 10

@TSTRMPro

@TSTRMPro Jan 10, 2022 | 12:50 PM EST DOUG KASS
Some of My Stronger Convictions
"The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity."
- William Butler Yates
I recently wrote an honest column about my lack of conviction and my general confusion in

viewing a market at all-time highs, with so many adverse outcomes possible/likely.
However, I do have several strong conviction views:
* Markets rise and fall, but, on a risk/reward basis, the S&P Index is unattractive given the current level of valuations, elevated by

historical standards, and the many possible economic and profit headwinds.

* The Bull Market is old and many/most stocks (save "The Nifty Five") are technically broken.
* The odds now favor that Mr. Market is making a broad, distributive and important top.
* Significant supply

Read 9 tweets

Dougie Kass

@DougKass

Jan 10

@TSTRMPro

@TSTRMPro
Jan 10, 2022 | 08:30 AM EST DOUG KASS
It's Different This Time
* The policy and market setup in January, 2022 is far different than late 2018 or early 2021
* We have likely entered a new regime of higher interest rates and heightened volatility
* The making of a broad,

distributive and important market top remains my baseline expectation
* Market participants have been "shocked" by the swift and abrupt rotation from growth to value during the first week of the year - but the overall decline in the averages to date has been mild

@jimcramer

* After three years of nearly +24% compounded annual growth in the S&P Index - the markets are likely far more vulnerable than most believe.
@jimcramer @ScottWapnerCNBC @HalftimeReport @andrewrsorkin @saraeisen @BeckyQuick @riskreversal @GuyAdami @convertbond

Read 5 tweets

Dougie Kass

@DougKass

Oct 15, 2021

@TSTRMPro

@TSTRMPro Oct 14, 2021 | 03:10 PM EDT DOUG KASS
Uh, Oh, FIFO!
Here is one of the important reasons I do not own any retail stocks (and I am short a bunch of 'em!).
Almost every retailer has abandoned LIFO -- last in, first out -- accounting.
So, there is no shield to inflation

for retailers now.
Retailers will now have to pay taxes on inventory profits, which are mythical. For example, goods bought for $4, now cost $5 per unit to replenish -- and $1 more working capital is now needed.
This must be financed in the short-term credit market.

This was not pretty, as was learned by food analysts in 1973-1974.
I have never forgotten that period.
Eventually, as prices rise beyond incomes (as they are now doing) consumers will buy fewer units.
Inventories pile up and you get a recession ... and likely a bear market.

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