anshul gupta Profile picture
Feb 10 7 tweets 2 min read
In monetary policy today, RBI has hiked the FPI limit for investment in Indian debt securities by 1 lakh crore (from 1.5 lakhs cr to 2.5 lakh crore) under the VRR.

What is VRR?

A short thread below. Image
VRR stands for the voluntary retention route.

As a foreign investor, a developing country like India, holds a lot of potential for investment, high growth and and regular demand for capital to run businesses.
However, foreign capital is volatile.

We saw this in our equity markets as well recently. So to prevent this volatility, there are a lot of restrictions on which foreign investors can hold Indian debt, how much and how they can invest.
However, such clauses restrict a lot of capital that can be used to finance growth.

So RBI in March 2019, proposed VRR for long term foreign investors. If someone opts for this route, they need to stay invested for at least 3 years. In return a lot of restrictions are waived.
This received a very positive response from the industry. The initial 1.5 lakh crores limit was exhausted and RBI has now revised this limit to 2.5 lakh crores.
Portion of this increased limit would be reserved for Government securities. This will create demand for the large borrowing program that govt has planned for next year.

Private corporates will also get access to foreign debt capital which will help them diversify liabilities.
This is a great move for the Indian financial sector and the economy as a whole.
But the message is clear, if you want to share in India’s growth, you have to be committed to the long term.

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More from @anshgupta64

Feb 12
RBI governor, Shaktikanta Das recently took a dig at crypto saying there is no underlying asset, not even a tulip.

What does this mean?

It was a reference to the tulip mania of the 1600s.

Thread🧵 Image
Ogier de Busbecq was the ambassador of the Holy Roman Emperor to the Sultan of Turkey. The Sultan sent with Ogier, the first tulip seeds and bulbs to Vienna.
He planted the same. These bulbs started getting distributed to Antwerp, Amsterdam, Netherlands, etc. The tulips grew remarkably well in the Netherlands.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 11
Central Bankers falling behind the curve.

Short thread🧵 Image
Economies across the world are seeing high inflation. US inflation touched 7.5% (something that hasn’t been seen in the last 40 years or so).
The eurozone inflation has gone up to a 25 year high of 5.1% in January 2022. Image
Central Banks have been slow to raise rates across the world even though inflation has gone up to multi-year highs.

Ideally, rates should have been increased before inflation levels rose so high.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 29
Pakistan recently raised USD 1Billion through Islamic bonds at 7.95% to maintain its forex reserves.

As per Sharia (Islamic law) lending with interest payments is prohibited, which is considered exploitative in nature. Thus, bonds are forbidden in Islamic finance.
So how can institutions raise Sharia compliant money? They issue Sukuk.

Sukuk is an Islamic financial certificate that represents a portion of ownership in a portfolio of eligible existing or future assets.
When investors buy Sukuk, they become entitled to receive periodic profit payments from underlying assets. Upon maturity Sukuk holders get back the principal amount. The periodic payment may be in the form of rent from the asset or the profit made by the asset in the market.
Read 8 tweets
Jan 28
May actually turn out well for Zomato if executed well.

1) Zomato has access to cashflow data, restaurant ratings, ordering data, customer profile which is what every lender craves for.
2) Zomato also has control over the partial cashflows of the restaurants since portion of revenue would be flowing via Zomato's online delivery platform.
Escrowing cashflows is every lender's dream and this will reduce risks for Zomato's NBFC
3)Its not like Zomato has no experience in lending. It has existing partnerships with lot of lenders wherein it acts as sourcing agent for institutions and refers leads to them for lending.

It would have rich data on these loans performance which it can feed into underwriting.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 27
Seeing Dosa trend on twitter, got reminded of "Dosanomics" by Raghuram Rajan 😀

In 2016, RBI cut the repo rate to then 5 year low of 6.5%.
Following this, banks also started lowering the interest rate on FDs from 10% to 8%
Many people used FDs as investment vehicles and FD interest was a significant part of a senior citizen’s income. This move was heavily criticised.

Raghuran Rajan explained the reason for the fall in rates using "Dosanomics".
Take example of a senior citizen who earns income only through interest on FDs. In a situation where interest rate offered by banks is at 10% and the inflation rate is at 10%. If the senior citizen invests Rs. 10,000 in FDs he would receive a return of Rs. 1,000 at end of year.
Read 8 tweets
Jan 27
10-year benchmark treasury yield of India jumped to 6.75%. US Dollar has also strengthened against major currencies.
Both have happened due to hawkish Fed signals which hinted that 1) Rate hikes should start from March & 2) Asset purchases would also come to halt
The US FED has two main goals: controlling inflation and maximizing employment.

If the FED wants to control inflation, it will reduce printing of money + hike rates (become hawkish) and if it wants to create employment, it will print more money + reduce rates (become dovish).
(Money printing increases the supply of currency making each dollar less valuable. It also leads to increased demand, employment and inflation. If printing stops, existing currency will gain value)
Read 5 tweets

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