Economies across the world are seeing high inflation. US inflation touched 7.5% (something that hasn’t been seen in the last 40 years or so).
The eurozone inflation has gone up to a 25 year high of 5.1% in January 2022.
Central Banks have been slow to raise rates across the world even though inflation has gone up to multi-year highs.
Ideally, rates should have been increased before inflation levels rose so high.
Coming to India, while inflation has not risen that sharply "yet", savings in banks have been earning negative returns due to low rates.
This results in indirect exploitation of "savers" who see their capital depleting over time.Concerns over creeping inflation are also there.
Who would have thought that there would be a time when market participants would ask central banks to start increasing rates and focus on inflation!
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Sri Lanka is facing an economic crisis and is on the verge of default.
What led to this situation?
A thread 🧵
1) Huge amount of tax breaks - In 2019 elections, the government had promised a large amount of tax breaks. They announced a number of tax cuts like no capital gains, VAT cut from 15% to 8%, half tax for construction companies etc.
While the government did deliver on its election promises, state revenues took a big hit.
RBI governor, Shaktikanta Das recently took a dig at crypto saying there is no underlying asset, not even a tulip.
What does this mean?
It was a reference to the tulip mania of the 1600s.
Thread🧵
Ogier de Busbecq was the ambassador of the Holy Roman Emperor to the Sultan of Turkey. The Sultan sent with Ogier, the first tulip seeds and bulbs to Vienna.
He planted the same. These bulbs started getting distributed to Antwerp, Amsterdam, Netherlands, etc. The tulips grew remarkably well in the Netherlands.
In monetary policy today, RBI has hiked the FPI limit for investment in Indian debt securities by 1 lakh crore (from 1.5 lakhs cr to 2.5 lakh crore) under the VRR.
What is VRR?
A short thread below.
VRR stands for the voluntary retention route.
As a foreign investor, a developing country like India, holds a lot of potential for investment, high growth and and regular demand for capital to run businesses.
However, foreign capital is volatile.
We saw this in our equity markets as well recently. So to prevent this volatility, there are a lot of restrictions on which foreign investors can hold Indian debt, how much and how they can invest.
Pakistan recently raised USD 1Billion through Islamic bonds at 7.95% to maintain its forex reserves.
As per Sharia (Islamic law) lending with interest payments is prohibited, which is considered exploitative in nature. Thus, bonds are forbidden in Islamic finance.
So how can institutions raise Sharia compliant money? They issue Sukuk.
Sukuk is an Islamic financial certificate that represents a portion of ownership in a portfolio of eligible existing or future assets.
When investors buy Sukuk, they become entitled to receive periodic profit payments from underlying assets. Upon maturity Sukuk holders get back the principal amount. The periodic payment may be in the form of rent from the asset or the profit made by the asset in the market.
2) Zomato also has control over the partial cashflows of the restaurants since portion of revenue would be flowing via Zomato's online delivery platform.
Escrowing cashflows is every lender's dream and this will reduce risks for Zomato's NBFC
3)Its not like Zomato has no experience in lending. It has existing partnerships with lot of lenders wherein it acts as sourcing agent for institutions and refers leads to them for lending.
It would have rich data on these loans performance which it can feed into underwriting.
Seeing Dosa trend on twitter, got reminded of "Dosanomics" by Raghuram Rajan 😀
In 2016, RBI cut the repo rate to then 5 year low of 6.5%.
Following this, banks also started lowering the interest rate on FDs from 10% to 8%
Many people used FDs as investment vehicles and FD interest was a significant part of a senior citizen’s income. This move was heavily criticised.
Raghuran Rajan explained the reason for the fall in rates using "Dosanomics".
Take example of a senior citizen who earns income only through interest on FDs. In a situation where interest rate offered by banks is at 10% and the inflation rate is at 10%. If the senior citizen invests Rs. 10,000 in FDs he would receive a return of Rs. 1,000 at end of year.