Transitory Is Taking Longer than Expected dlvr.it/SJlFDM 
Chip shortage is improving, but not back to normal. A shortage of new cars saw prices rise 12% Y/Y (flat for month); that shortage caused used car prices to surge 40.5%
https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1491768270600343555
Energy prices crashed at beginning of pandemic, but surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Above January 2020, but below the peaks in 2008, 2011, 12, 13, and 14.
Base effects = most of 2022’s year-over-year comparisons begin to show smaller gains.
Base effects = most of 2022’s year-over-year comparisons begin to show smaller gains.
Wages: A belated catch-up after decades of lagging bottom 1/2+min wage + shortage of workers (decreased immigration, new biz launches, lack of childcare, covid deaths + early retirements)
Unofficial min wage = $15 + likely to prove sticky, but I no signs going much higher 2022
Unofficial min wage = $15 + likely to prove sticky, but I no signs going much higher 2022
Sales & Rents: A miscalculation in housing demand is large part of the single family home shortfall. It will take a few years to before the supply has caught up to existing demand levels.
ritholtz.com/2021/07/miscal…
ritholtz.com/2021/07/miscal…
Big spike in NYC rent but prices are still 2.4% below pre-pandemic levels.
https://twitter.com/ritholtz/status/1491760612556247043
Re-Opening: Pre-pandemic, the balance of Goods (38.7%) vs Services (61.3%) was tilted towards Services. That shifted as so many had to scramble to work from home.
Global production of goods is now up 5% over 2019 pre-pandemic levels, but demand has risen 20%.
Global production of goods is now up 5% over 2019 pre-pandemic levels, but demand has risen 20%.
More ships, more containers + ports working 24/7 are still insufficient to meet the Goods demand.
As measured by CPI, Services are now 4.6% higher than a year ago but Commodities are up a whopping 12.4%.
As measured by CPI, Services are now 4.6% higher than a year ago but Commodities are up a whopping 12.4%.
I am reluctant to call this Peak Inflation, but I suspect we are close.
As we reopen, we will buy less stuff and more services. This will eventually revert back towards the prior balance.
It might be temporary, but it is still inflation.
As we reopen, we will buy less stuff and more services. This will eventually revert back towards the prior balance.
It might be temporary, but it is still inflation.
arggh, 2.1% not 2.4%!
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