in general, when protestors seize public roadways and deny general access to them, especially without prior provision of permits, it is reasonable for the security forces of the state to clear them from those roads with appropriate force.
this applies in the winter of 2022 and the summer of 2020 and in fact it just sort of applies generally.

when protestors seize public spaces and then deny their usage to the public, and do so continuously and without legal permission, they should be cleared.
parks, roads, whatever.

now, if legal authorities are denying permits for reasonable protests, or creating unduly onerous permitting processes, or otherwise denying basic assembly rights, this general rule can of course be suspended.
and when the entire system of government is unrepresentative and nondemocratic, well then, don't stop with closing a bridge. in that situation you've got to go full on Color Revolution or else your goose is cooked.
but in societies where permitting for protests is usually rather straightforward and authorities generally rather tolerant of organized protests such as, for example, the united states and canada, it's reasonable to disperse unlawful protestors.
when grungy hippies squat in a public park for weeks and deny normal public usage of it, you should clear them with whatever force is necessary to achieve that.

when legitimate and permitted street protests are hijacked by rioters and looters to shut down public roads, clear'em.
and when a bunch of truckers shut down major roads and international borders without even a semblance of attempt to abide by basic rules about protest, seems like the right solution is, again, to use such force as may be necessary to remove them.
and my general view here is that the appropriate amount of force is merely the amount which achieves the goal. as long as the public space remains occupied, insufficient force has been used.
now, again, this is stipulating the existence of democratic channels for dissent, a relatively straightforward and open process for permitting demonstrations, etc
but if you're going to set up barricades, you're inviting cannon fire.
as best I can tell, I'm not even opposed to the truckers in terms of most of their policy aims. i just think after years of rightists complaining about these strategies on the left, with good cause, it's a bit rich to now adopt them.
at the same time, i do hope the left will take note that the convoy is functionally identical to a lot of the left mobilizations we've seen in the last decade, and indeed is very obviously a strategy learned from various demonstrations and occupations on the left.
once a strategy has been used on one side, it will be used by the other.

and apparently, my side has the major force multiplier that each protestor brings 10 tons of mobile barricade with them, so a smaller body of protestors can do SO much more disruption

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More from @lymanstoneky

Feb 11
US excess deaths appear to be remaining stubbornly high. Image
Could still just be a time lag before falling cases generate falling deaths. Could also be excessive upward revisions in my model. Hard to say exactly.
Here's deaths in the rolling 12 month period vs. expected deaths in that period from previous trends. As you can see, our current pandemic is really edging towards 1918. Image
Read 8 tweets
Feb 11
omg i had never hear dthis conspiracy theory

but i don't care if it's true

i choose to believe

Fidel Castro is Justin Trudeau's father.
medium.com/@leibowitt/of-…
look, it's just too insane a theory to not believe it. theories this nuts must be believed merely on the premise that the possibility of them being true makes the world vastly more entertaining.
somebody get 23andMe on the case and solve it
Read 5 tweets
Feb 11
google polls no longer allow you to ask any questions about race, ethnicity, politics, sex, health, pregnancy, or religion
this is irritating because google polls are the super-cheap option. for a 1-question thing you could recruit respondents for $0.15 per response, which made it an incredibly good option for doing "tracking polls" of various kinds
but google is making it clear now that their cheap polls are basically *only* for marketing research. that's it.
Read 8 tweets
Feb 11
Nice article from @stephmurrayyyy on demographic forecasting.

My only quibble would be the quote that short-run forecasting is easy. That's wrong. It's often harder! theatlantic.com/family/archive…
*Nobody* disputes that fertility in, say, Nigeria, will be lower 20 years from now than it is today. And while there's disagreement by how much, the band of error is not THAT wide.

But will it fall *next year*? And by how much?

Demographers do not even model that question!
To find guidance on short-run forecasting like that the demographic literature is almost worthless; it just doesn't concern itself with that kind of thing. For that you need economics papers and such, which estimate elasticities directly.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 11
This survey report has some clear typos in it, and the methodology is a convenience sample, so, caveats.... but the cross-cultural gaps it shows in birthing norms are interesting nonetheless. drive.google.com/file/d/1Kn1CQg…
Especially comparing Europeans and North Americans, two groups which should both have pretty similar access to the sampling frame, a pregnancy tracking app.
North American women are more likely to say the father of their child is highly involved in the pregnancy: Image
Read 9 tweets
Feb 10
With the first month of abortion data from Texas' abortion restrictions, we can see that the number of abortions fell.

What happened to births?

Basically nothing.
Now, most abortions are early on, so in principle you'd expect several months of delay before any meaningful effects.
Right now, given the usual timing of abortions, we can really only reliably estimate the share of monthly conceptions which ended in abortions through December 2020. Here's what it looks like.
Read 7 tweets

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