1/In a conventional realpolitik frame, there is no rational reason why Putin would invade Ukraine, as the costs to him relative to the gain would seem to be catastrophic. Thus, the West concludes, for him to move forward would be madness. Ergo, he won’t really do it.
2/However, all indications are that he is in fact moving forward. Is that merely “face saving,” or a move to extract more concessions? If we lack imagination, maybe.
But with a more imaginative frame, different realities become thinkable.
But with a more imaginative frame, different realities become thinkable.
3/First, the West seems to pay little attention to the full range of hybrid warfare possibilities, which include full activation of the global Fifth Column, reality-warping population focused info ops, and financial warfare. There does seem to be an alliance between various…
4/oil and energy aligned interests to attack central banks and fiat currency systems in favor of gold and crypto “sound money” alternatives. Given that network and its long term dispute with the status quo, it is a mistake for the West to exclude this from its models…
5/of Putin’s game theory calculus. Indeed the only way Putin’s invasion move makes sense is if these other hybrid attacks are employed. Therefore the real probability of Putin attacking implies the existence of these other strategies. It wouldn’t be worth it otherwise.
6/Defense, policy, executive and legislative officials need to map out this battle space that includes a wide range of hidden hybrid warfare variables — particularly societal and financial. I am not hearing this. I get it may be private or classified. But the public needs…
7/to know that our governments understand this conflict calculus. Because it’s not especially opaque even for laypersons such as me. I am simply concerned that people making decisions may not understand this as well as some of us in the public do. We need clarity.
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