Thread by @rajeshmahapatra

Last evening, we had an engaging, insightful #space on Phase 1 of voting in #UPElections and what to expect going ahead
Most participants predicted big gains for @samajwadiparty n allies. @BJP4India in a tight spot in many seats earlier considered safe.
#Thread on key takeaways👇

➡️ In the 58 seats that went to polls Thursday, voter turnout was 60% (excludes postal ballot), slightly lower than 63% in 2017
➡️ Urban voting was subdued, which could be bad news for @BJP4India
➡️ Higher turnout in villages seen as favouring @samajwadiparty

#UPElections

➡️ Jat votes have reportedly consolidated more than expected in favour of SP-led alliance
➡️ In some places, BJP seen losing support among key caste groups such as Gurjars n Sainis which overwhelmingly supported the party in 2017

#UttarPradeshElections #AssemblyElections2022

➡️ There are as many as 9 ministers contest in the 1st phase. Barring a couple, most are in a tight spot. Strong anti-incumbency?
➡️ Ganna belt is a clean sweep for #SP-RLD Gathbandhan
➡️ In Aloo Belt, considered BJP’s stronghold, the party has a fight on hand in most seats

➡️ Seats like Jewar, Dadri, Mathura city, Hastinapur — earlier considered easy wins for BJP - May spring surprises.
➡️ Congress and BSP, seen as marginal players in this election, may also spring some surprises — especially in seats in Agra district.

#UttarPradeshElections

Consensus forecast for first round (if there is no post-poll sleight of hand, especially wrt postal ballots)

Total seats: 58

SP-RLD: 30-33
BJP: 25-28
Others: 0-3

PS: in 2017, BJP had won 53 of these 58 seats