Thomas Chua Profile picture
Feb 11 10 tweets 5 min read
Read $PTON new CEO Barry McCarthy's email to employees.

Tough decisions were made swiftly and decisively to ensure survival.

This saga reminded me of @bhorowitz chapter on "When Things Fall Apart".

Lessons on managing crises from The Hard Thing About Hard Things:
@bhorowitz 1. Get your head right

It's hard to focus on the future during a crisis because the past will overwhelm us—but that's precisely what CEOs must do—focus on what needs to be done for the future.
@bhorowitz 2. Don't delay

Once a decision has been made to lay-off, execution should be as swift as possible.

If word leaks (if you delay), more problems will ensue.

Employees will start questioning the managers and create further agitation.
@bhorowitz 3. Be clear why you are laying people off

If it was because the company failed to hit its plan, say it like it is.

Admit the failure and not sugarcoat it.

Rebuilding trust is key.
@bhorowitz 4. Train your managers

Managers must lay off their own people.

You can't outsource if to HR or to a more sadistic peer.

People will remember the day they were laid off.

Every. Single. Detail.

Have the courage to admit the company's failure and lay them off.
@bhorowitz 5. Address the entire company

Before executing the layout, the CEO must address the company.

It should provide context and air cover for the managers.

The message is for the people who are staying.

They care about those who are laid off.

So do it with kindness and respect.
@bhorowitz 6. Be visible, be present

Be present. Be visible. Be engaging.

People want to see that you care.

The people whom you laid off will want to know if they still have a relationship with you and the company.

Talk to them. Help them carry their things.

Show your appreciation.
@bhorowitz That's the end of my thread on crisis management.

If you like this, follow me here @steadycompound

I write about investment concepts, business breakdowns and growth philosophies.
@bhorowitz If you haven't read the Peloton's CEO letter, check it out here:

@bhorowitz More essential lessons on running a business by Ben Horowitz:

The Hard Thing About Hard Things.

amzn.to/36ay8oR

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More from @SteadyCompound

Feb 12
You asked, I delivered.

Many of you have asked me how to value a company.

To best address this topic, I went back to basics.

Valuation by Mckinsey, Aswath Damodaran's lectures, MM papers and more.

Check out: A Primer On Valuation 👇 Image
In this post you'll find:

• primer on stock valuation
• FREE intrinsic value calculator
• complete list of resources on mastering valuation

steadycompounding.com/investing/valu…
Highly recommend you read the primer on valuation first.

But if you want to jump straight to downloading the free intrinsic value calculator, download it here:

steadycompounding.gumroad.com/l/ivcalculator
Read 4 tweets
Feb 5
Evaluating management is a difficult task.

Elizabeth Holmes raised $900m & had support from billionaires, VCs, and government officials.

Her invention promised > 200 medical tests with just a drop of blood.

It was all a ruse.

My reflection & lessons on evaluating management:
1. Never stray too far from your competence

Be aware of your circle of competence.

It is easy to give in to FOMO when you see others making a ton of money, especially in complicated & rapidly growing sectors.

Develop a discipline to invest only when you understand the product.
2. Is management beating around the bush?

Assess if management can answer difficult questions without using a bunch of fluff words.

We want management to be candid and straightforward.
Read 10 tweets
Feb 2
$FB (now $META) Q4 results:

Revenue: 33.7B vs 33.4B (beat)
EBIT: 12.6B vs 13.1B (miss)
Net Income: 10.3B vs 11B (miss)
EPS: $3.72 vs $3.83 (miss)

DAP: 2.82B, up 8% yoy
MAP: 3.59B, up 9% yoy
DAUs: 1.93B, up 5% yoy
MAUs: 2.91B, up 4% yoy
Ad impressions: Up 13% yoy
Price per ad: Up 6% yoy

Headcount: 71,970 up 23%

Share repurchases: $19.18B in Q4 21

Total shares repurchased for full year 2021: $44.81B

$38.79B left in the tank for more share repurchases.
Similar to the shift from desktop feed to mobile feed and to stories, Mark is leading the next pivot into Reels.

It will further cannibalize its ad revenue from feed in the short-term but this move is key to capturing younger adults.
Read 12 tweets
Jan 29
Several people asked for book recommendations.

Books that made me a better investor.

Books that inspired me.

Here are my top 10 books that made my life significantly better:
1. The Joys of Compounding

@Gautam__Baid did a great job at distilling investment and life lessons into a comprehensive guide.

amzn.to/32H1Xf5
@Gautam__Baid 2. Capital Returns: Investing Through the Capital Cycle

Best for understanding commodity and investment cycles.

amzn.to/3HfvDPs
Read 13 tweets
Jan 29
Many analysts are reducing their price targets on growth stocks during this dip.

Yes, price action drives narrative.

But if we look at their models, the revenue growth & margins projection doesn't change.

They're still expecting the companies to execute.

So what changed?
The terminal multiple (based on earnings, sales, cash flow, EBITDA, etc) assigned to a company changed to a greater extent.

They're trying to figure out what the market is going to pay in the future.

To avoid looking silly, it won't be too far from the herd.
No matter how many certifications they have under their belt, they will guesstimate future multiples based on current market sentiments.

I still do look at analyst's reports from time to time.

To try and understand their thinking behind growth & margins.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 25
Before, the only way to learn from investing legends was to get into Columbia Business School.

It featured greats such as Ben Graham, Joel Greenblatt & Bruce Greenwald.

Today, the internet has made education available to all for FREE!

The top 5 'lectures' by fund managers:
1. Joel Greenblatt of Gotham Capital

A playlist of Joel's lecture at Columbia.

Available for free!

Learn about valuation, special situations, case studies and options.

2. Li Lu of Himalaya Capital

Learn about what to look for in businesses and the mindset of a business owner.

Read 8 tweets

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