Dr. Jeffrey Lewis Profile picture
Feb 11, 2022 9 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Saudi Arabia got released some footage of "Iranian missiles in Yemen in 2017" that turned out to be "Saddam's missiles in Iraq from 2003" that someone stole from a documentary, #SevereClear A short thread on a wild story by @garymbaum in @THR.
The Saudis showed a satellite image of a port in Yemen where the claimed, followed by "secret" video showing the missiles. @miis_ford translated the slides. ImageImage
The problem, as many online observers pointed out, is that the video of the missiles is taken from a documentary about the invasion of Iraq called "Severe Clear." The Saudis showed a brief excerpt three times; the full clip that I added shows the full clip with US soldiers.
This was really lazy, or contemptuous, on the part of the Saudis. First, you can just reverse image search a still and Google will tell you it is from the movie. Image
Second, the missiles are "Al Samud II" short-range ballistic missiles. The briefer doesn't really give you a good look, but the missiles in the video they show have the same access panels as the Al Samud II. ImageImageImage
The gyroscope plate is also the same. You don't really need Sherlock Holmes here to do this identification. Iraq used a small number of these missiles in the 2003 Gulf War. I would be shocked if no one recognized their old friend. ImageImage
Third, an analyst could have tried to gelocate the video at the port. The arrow in the slide points at one building that simply isn't a match at all. (below). Most of the other buildings are trashed; none are a good match for the roof, windows, etc. Image
All of which is to say, this video would have been easy to verify if someone had many any effort at all. My students in the @MIIS #OSINT course can do, and routinely do, much better. This was either very lazy or deeply contemptuous of public opinion.
So many typos.

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More from @ArmsControlWonk

Jun 23
Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures. 🧵 1/17
Netanyahu's justification for conducting this strike was that "Iran has produced enough highly enriched uranium for nine atom bombs -- nine." He refers to Iran's stockpile of ~400 kg of 60% U-235 which, if further enriched, would be enough for 9-10 weapons. Let's consider. 2/17
The 400 kg of HEU was largely stored in underground tunnels near the Isfahan Uranium Conversion Facility. Despite extensive Israeli and US attacks the facility, there does not seem to have been any effort to destroy these tunnels or the material that was in them. 3/17 Image
Read 17 tweets
Jun 19
References to "tactical" nuclear weapons in this otherwise great @guardian story by @hugolowell are misleading. The US would drop a strategic B61-11 nuclear earth penetrator with a yield of 300 or 400 kilotons. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were 15 and 21 kt.
theguardian.com/world/2025/jun…The effectiveness of GBU-57s has been a topic of deep contention at the Pentagon since the start of Trump’s term, according to two defense officials who were briefed that perhaps only a tactical nuclear weapon could be capable of destroying Fordow because of how deeply it is buried. Trump is not considering using a tactical nuclear weapon on Fordow and the possibility was not briefed by defense secretary Pete Hegseth and the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff Gen Dan Caine in meetings in the White House situation room, two people familiar with the matter said. ... Those in the briefing h...
Here are the nuclear weapons in the US "enduring stockpile" from @ENERGY's stockpile management plant. Note that the B61-11 nuclear earth penetrator is labeled as a "strategic bomb" -- and for good reason.
energy.gov/sites/default/…Image
The yield of the B61-11 is classified, but it is a converted B61-7 bomb. The yield of the -7 and -11 are usually given as more than 300 kilotons. @nukestrat says the B61-11 was increased to 400 kt. Either way, this is a very powerful nuclear weapon. Image
Image
Read 12 tweets
Jun 16
I see @SangerNYT asked why Israel hasn't hit the stockpile of enriched uranium. My understanding is that the hex is stored in the tunnels at Isfahan and Israel hasn't been able to destroy the hard, deeply buried targets. Thread. Image
Isfahan UCF has some tunnels that are are about 100 m under a mountain that Israel has not yet tried to hit. The Iranians were pretty proud of these tunnels, which were constructed around the same time as Fordow by the same dwarves (aka the Passive Defense Organization). Image
Image
This is pretty esoteric knowledge that is only covered in specialists journals like ... the @nytimes. 😉 (Sorry, I just appreciate Bill Broad and want to give him some love.) Image
Read 7 tweets
Jun 10
This is probably the the new North Korean uranium enrichment facility that @iaeaorg DG @rafaelmgrossi briefed the Board of Governors about. @sam_lair and I have a summary on the blog. Nice shot by our friends at @planet.
armscontrolwonk.com/archive/122048…Image
Here is what @grossi said:
iaea.org/newscenter/sta…The undeclared enrichment facilities at both Kangson and Yongbyon are of serious concern.  In addition, the Agency is monitoring the construction of a new building at Yongbyon which has dimensions and features similar to the Kangson enrichment plant.
The dimensions, layout and other features do resemble the Kangson UEP when it was constructed. Here is a 2002 image of the Kangson under construction -- the central enrichment hall is about 93 m long, which is the right length for two 164-centifuge cascades end-to-end. Image
Read 13 tweets
Jun 2
Trump's offer to Iran, as reported by @BarakRavid, is a dollar-store-JCPOA.

The JCPOA -- which Trump abandoned -- had all of these provisions, usually in ways that were stronger or more carefully constructed.

He's trying to put Humpty Dumpty back together again. A thread. Image
@BarakRavid Here is the original story. The proposal was "described to Axios by two sources with direct knowledge — one of whom provided a point-by-point breakdown." This is a paraphrase, so sometimes its hard to know what they are getting at.
axios.com/2025/06/02/ira…
@BarakRavid Here is the text of the JCPOA. You don't have to take my word for it; you can look it up yourself.
europarl.europa.eu/cmsdata/122460…
Read 14 tweets
Dec 12, 2024
A bunch of tankie accounts are reposting this claim that Russia can produce 25 Oreshnik IRBMs a month.

That's probably wrong. 🧵
militarywatchmagazine.com/article/ukrain…
The claim of 25 missiles a month is falsely attributed to the @DI_Ukraine. What @DI_Ukraine says, according to other news outlets, is 25 IRBMs per YEAR, not per MONTH.
babel.ua/news/113282-ro…
Oreshnik is the first two stages of the Yars missile. Oreshnik production rates should be similar to Yars production rates, which the Russians claim is "about 20 launchers and their supporting systems per year."
web.archive.org/web/2021041112…
Read 7 tweets

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