SITUATION REPORT FM KYIV: WH actions likely based on Enemy Most Dangerous Course of Action. MY VIEW: US Intell can see all moves but Putin’s GO Order will not be seen quickly. Definitive signs: 1) Ru Air Force Weapons depots will load up at multiple air bases. #UkraineConflict
2) Bastion/Kalibr Cruise msls & Iskander Ballistic msls units will receive orders & set up real firing positions. 3) Blinding Jamming/Cyber atk on all cell/internet. 4) armor assault units move to 10km fm border. 5) MASSIVE air strikes & fighter sweeps all over Ukraine.
6) Russian Army SSO commandos & parachute forces may drop/helicopter directly on KBP airport, comms, mm gov & key centers in central Kyiv. Hope for quick capitulation of gov or disorganized response. It won’t happen. Fighting WILL break out Nation wide w/Locals hunting Russians
7) In UKR East Ru Army will try to take Sumy/Kharkiv line down to Luhansk in 1st week. UKR SOUTH could face BASTION missile attacks on Odessa/amphibious & airborne landings. UKR NORTH - Will defend Kyiv/Chernihiv w/their lives & mobilize all citizens to fight/resist. They will.
WEST: Will lay basis for counterattack & relief of Kyiv if necessary. Will husband UKR MiG-29s & Su-37s
FINAL ASSESSMENT: GO ORDER COMES ONLY FROM PUTIN HIMSELF. Prob of attack? 50/50!! No definitive unambiguous order to “execute”seen yet at field level. No reason any of this threat except for what is happening in Putin’s head. Ignore everything else. #UkraineCrisis
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