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Feb 11 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Given the growing risk of Russia invading Ukraine, here is a 🧵of THREADS that provide context from an international relations perspective.

[THREAD]
Key to this whole crisis is to recognize that it was long in the making. If major war does break out, it would not shock many long time observers of the region
A key claim leveled by 🇷🇺 is that it has to take a strong stand now because 🇺🇸 went back on a pledge from the 1990s to NOT expand @NATO. Did 🇺🇸 actually make such a pledge?

Even if you don't buy 🇷🇺's claims about a pledge, you could still say that @NATO was pushing the limits of expansion (poking the bear?) when it admitted the Baltic states (🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹) in the early 2000s. How did that happen?
Of course, all of the above just further illustrates the seemingly central position Russia plays in our study of war

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More from @ProfPaulPoast

Paul Poast Profile picture
Jan 30
Did the USA promise Russia that it would not expand NATO?

Yes, but.

[THREAD]
To be clear, A crisis between Ukraine and Russia was likely with or without the prospect of NATO expansion.

As I detailed in 👇🧵, scholars long saw Ukraine as THE potential post-Cold War flashpoint

But the issue of NATO expansion, specifically whether the USA promised Russia that it would never happen, IS part of the current crisis.

npr.org/2022/01/29/107…
Read 32 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Jan 22
The Ukraine crisis has folks questioning @NATO's post-Cold War expansion into Eastern Europe, especially former Soviet Republics (namely the Baltic states of 🇪🇪🇱🇹🇱🇻).

So how exactly did the Baltics get into NATO?

[THREAD]
Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia are currently the only former Soviet Republics in @NATO. They became members in 2004, along with Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia.
Regardless of whether there was a promise to never move NATO "one inch" eastward after the Cold War, neither the Soviets or the Americans, in 1990, likely envisioned NATO expanding into former Soviet Republics.
amazon.com/Not-One-Inch-P…
Read 28 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Jan 16
We're close to witnessing a major war over Ukraine. Why? Turns out, it's been long predicted by international relations scholars.

[THREAD]
To be clear, there is ONGOING fighting in Ukraine.

cfr.org/global-conflic…
Indeed, this ongoing conflict is why Russia was kicked out of the G-8 (following its annexation of Crimea in 2014)...

cnn.com/2014/03/24/pol…
Read 27 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Jan 8
Why did 🇺🇸 have a civil war?

And why is one unlikely today?

[THREAD]
This 🧵is motivated by the #January6thAnniversary-inspired takes on whether the US is on the verge of ANOTHER civil war.
The short answer is "NO".

The longer answer is "No, but the potential for lower-level political violence is real."
Read 22 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Jan 2
Is 🇺🇸 still seen as the "indispensable nation"?

Sort of. To see why, let's compare the movies "Armageddon" (from 1998) and "Don't Look Up" (from 2021)

[THREAD]
Before reading the rest of the thread, I'm should note that this thread contains SPOILERS!!
Both movies are about 🌏 being imminently threatened by a asteroid (Armageddon)/comet (Don't Look UP).

That's NOT an implausible scenario.

cnn.com/2020/03/03/wor…
Read 25 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
Dec 18, 2021
Is game theory "useful" for understanding international politics?

According to Robert Powell, the answer is "yes, but know its limits."

[THREAD]
Powell's work largely focused on using mathematical formal models (i.e. game theory) to study international conflict.

And, as @jkertzer recently shared, Powell was VERY good at math!
What always stood out to me was his willingness to discuss the limits of using models to understand international politics.

He would do so with short quips buried in his most-influential papers. These quips offered "meta" insights into the role of theory.

Here are 4 examples.
Read 27 tweets

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