First, some context. In Budget 2018 the carbon tax (just the retail levy, since I presume the UCP was not referring to the large-emitter carbon tax, which they support) was projected to be $1.5 billion by 2020/21.
That's approximately 0.4 percent of GDP. In 2017/18, it was 0.3.
I initially thought the largest tax increase would have been found back in Budget 1936 when we brought in a sales tax! That was two percent. Today that would be about 0.6 percent of GDP, so ... larger than than the CTax.
But then I remembered Budget 1987!!!
This budget contained *a lot* of tax increases (and new taxes!). The largest was personal income tax increases. (They did income taxes differently at the time, so don't worry about what those rates mean.)
This was 0.6 percent of GDP! Today equivalent to ~$2 billion.
Not only is that larger than the CTax, it was implemented right away! The CTax was phased in gradually over time. That's important, since it was really just a sequence of multiple tax increases.
Speaking of multiple tax increases, Budget 1987 kept going! Liquor and tobacco taxes went up. That was 0.3 percent of GDP. Nearly $1b equivalent today.
And what's this... a new tax: a gas tax! Five cents! 🚗That was 0.4 percent of GDP -- today equivalent to ~$1.3 billion.
Also, 5c/L is roughly the same as $23/tonne carbon tax :)
What about corporate taxes? Those went up from 10 to 15 percent ... immediately.
There were more changes to fees, fines, higher taxes on insurance companies, a new tax on hotels, and more! All together, it was nearly 2 percent of GDP (ish). Today that would be something like a $7 billion increase! In a single budget.
So, yeah, the CTax was not the largest tax increase.
Also, we can't forget the rebates!! The carbon tax setup was an increase in costs for some and a decrease for others! Roughly 40 percent of families had rebates > CTax costs. policyschool.ca/wp-content/upl…
So what really was the largest tax increase in Alberta history? I don't know. But I know what it wasn't, and now you do too! 🤓🥳
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Today's data: inflation rate falls to 2.7% in April. Would have fallen more, but gasoline pushed the rate up. Shelter remains largest contributor, but pace of increase is falling.
The key Bank of Canada core measures of inflation have also remained within the target range -- lower than 2% -- over the past 3 months. This is what the bank is looking forward before lowering rates.
Here are the contributors to the drop. Most items down, but energy prices offset some of that.
This accounts for *changes* in the CPI annual rate of increase. Alternatively, had energy prices remained flat yoy, then CPI growth would have been 2.4% in April.
Today's data: inflation! 🥳 Prices were 2.9%, on average, higher in January than a year earlier. Inflation down from 3.4% in Dec. Biggest contributors to the drop were energy, food, travel. Cell phones offsetting some.
Looking at the headline rate, shelter is larger contributor. Rent accounts for ~0.5 points of the 2.9, mortgage interest costs ~1.0 points.
Important: note the strong decline in the pace of grocery price growth. Now in line with historical norm.
The decline in inflation has also been fairly broad based, with now fewer than half of items seeing a pace of price growth above 3% -- although still a larger share than normal, which is ~0.3-0.4.
This is higher than last month, true, but it doesn't mean the inflation situation is worsening. I noted this yesterday, saying 3.4% was the number to watch.
This is a *very* important point to keep in mind for the next *several* months. Even if things are completely normal month-by-month, the headline rate won't fall much over the next quarter.
As expected, inflation fell in October. A lot. From 3.8% in September to 3.1% in October. And monthly, adjusted for seasonality, prices were lower in October than Sept.
A big part of the reason is from lower gasoline prices. That's anticipated because oil prices were down. There's a tight connection between energy's contribution to CPI and oil prices (obviously). This has been a consistent story over the past two years.
You can see the size of the contribution from energy to the change in inflation since September here 👇 . Basically everything else was a net wash.
Some Alberta Pension Plan proponents are concerned about Albertans paying more in contributions than they receive in benefits. Is this "overcontribution" legitimate? If so, does it imply the CPP is unfair? Would an APP solve it?
Allow me to explain. 🧵🤓 #cdnpoli #ableg #cdnecon
The Government of Alberta regularly cites $60 billion in excess contributions over what has been received in benefits. The report commissioned by the government includes this figure. Red is Alberta. Positive means contributions > benefits. 👇
The data are accurate. You don't even need an actuary. Statistics Canada reports this annually. Total contributions from 1966-2021 amount to approximately $60 billion. Adjusting for inflation provides a clearer perspective.
The GST adds 5% to the cost of purchasing a good or service subject to this tax. Not all items are subject to it, though. I (roughly) estimate that, overall, the GST adds an average of 2.3% for consumer expenditures as a whole. (From here: )www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.…
So, eliminating the GST would drop the CPI by 2.3%. Since the latest inflation reading is 3.8%, that would leave us at 1.5% (assuming nothing else changed). And 1.5% is 61% lower than 3.8%.