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Shashank Joshi Profile picture
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Feb 12 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
“American officials said it was still unclear whether Mr. Putin had made a decision to invade. U.S. officials have picked up intelligence that Russia is considering Wednesday as the possible date for the start of military action” nytimes.com/2022/02/11/wor…
“Those officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information, acknowledged the possibility that the mention of a particular date could be part of a Russian disinformation effort.” nytimes.com/2022/02/11/wor…
Contra Sullivan, WSJ also says Biden told allies a decision made. “In a call with European leaders on Friday, Mr Biden said that the US now believes Mr Putin has made a decision to go ahead…& named specific dates when Washington believed it might happen” wsj.com/articles/senio…
“The U.S. assessment that Putin is likely to launch an attack is based partly on new intelligence that Russia is planning to conduct a false-flag operation to create a pretext for invading Ukraine, according to multiple officials” washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/…

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More from @shashj

Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Feb 8
“Dans l’avion qui l’emmenait à Moscou, le président avait confié à quelques journalistes que l’idée d’une «finlandisation» de l’Ukraine faisait partie, entre autres sujets, des dossiers posés sur la table” lefigaro.fr/international/…
Macron: «Vladimir Poutine veut un changement profond de la politique de l’OTAN. Il faut trouver une solution pour que cet espace de sécurité qu’est l’OTAN cohabite avec la Russie. Un élément d’adéquation, c’est la non-adhésion de l’Ukraine à l’OTAN» lefigaro.fr/international/…
English: Macron "told some journalists that the idea of a "Finlandisation" of Ukraine was one of the issues on the table..."We have to find a solution so that this security space that is NATO coexists with Russia. One element of adequacy is Ukraine's non-membership of NATO"...'
Read 6 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Feb 8
“According to French officials, there was an agreement not to undertake new military initiatives and to have a broad dialogue on Russian troop deployments…withdrawal of Russian troops from Belarus this month after the conclusion of huge joint exercises”
on.ft.com/3ryaIlh
Kremlin says 'French assertions that...Putin had promised...Macron that Moscow would not carry out new military initiatives around Ukraine for now were "not right". A French official said Putin had made the pledge during long talks in Moscow' reuters.com/world/europe/k…
Macron, arriving in Kyiv, contradicts Kremlin and says he did get assurances: "I obtained that there will be no degradation nor escalation"
themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/08/mac…
Read 5 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Feb 7
'The senior official at the French presidency said the nucleus of the Western conflict with Putin lay “in the extension of NATO & the inclusion in it of countries from the former Soviet space,” which created “an area of volatility that has to be reduced.”' nytimes.com/2022/02/06/wor…
'France appears to be saying that Mr. Putin’s demands, which include pushing NATO back ... cannot ever be satisfied but that getting “to the heart of the matter” involves acknowledgment that NATO expansion created permanent grievances' nytimes.com/2022/02/06/wor…
'“We can take a step toward Putin, recognize he is not completely wrong,” said Justin Vaïsse, the former head of policy planning at the French foreign ministry who now heads the Paris Peace Forum.' nytimes.com/2022/02/06/wor…
Read 5 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Feb 6
Macron is really out on a limb here, with his credibility at stake. “The intensity of the dialogue we have had with Russia and this visit to Moscow are likely to prevent [a military operation] from happening. Then we will discuss the terms of de-escalation”
Macron: “We must protect our European brothers by proposing a new balance capable of preserving their sovereignty and peace. This must be done while respecting Russia and understanding the contemporary traumas of this great people and nation” politico.eu/article/emmanu…
For those who want the original. "L’intensité du dialogue que nous avons eu avec la Russie et cette visite à Moscou sont de nature à empêcher que cela n’advienne." lejdd.fr/International/…
Read 8 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Feb 5
On US troops to Europe, let’s get a grip. There are 130,000 Russian troops near Ukraine. US is sending 1,700 new troops to Romania & 1,000 Germany-based ones to Poland—on a temporary basis. For comparison, 20,000 Americans were involved in the Trident Juncture exercise in 2018.
And this isn’t even getting into the sort of troops that are being sent. We aren’t exactly talking about heavy armour and heavy firepower.
These troops are not there to deter a Russian attack on Ukraine. They’re there to reassure vulnerable Nato allies in the midst of the biggest troop build-up and military crisis in Europe for a generation. For better or worse, they’re a visible and tangible sign of US commitment.
Read 4 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Feb 4
The last few weeks have resurrected a longstanding debate on how journalists & their readers should interpret, scrutinise, and report on intelligence-based claims that are presented without evidence. It is not a straightforward issue. 🧵
On the one hand, claims made without evidence should be treated sceptically. Big ones especially so. Governments need not be lying to misperceive or misunderstand things. On the other hand, it is facile to assume, automatically, that every situation is essentially Iraq 2002-03.
In some cases, and increasingly, open-source intelligence (👇) can corroborate or disprove government claims. This applies to Russia and the West alike, though their track record is not equivalent.
economist.com/briefing/2021/…
Read 5 tweets

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