On US troops to Europe, let’s get a grip. There are 130,000 Russian troops near Ukraine. US is sending 1,700 new troops to Romania & 1,000 Germany-based ones to Poland—on a temporary basis. For comparison, 20,000 Americans were involved in the Trident Juncture exercise in 2018.
And this isn’t even getting into the sort of troops that are being sent. We aren’t exactly talking about heavy armour and heavy firepower.
These troops are not there to deter a Russian attack on Ukraine. They’re there to reassure vulnerable Nato allies in the midst of the biggest troop build-up and military crisis in Europe for a generation. For better or worse, they’re a visible and tangible sign of US commitment.
The pt is not that main threat is Russian invasion of Nato. It’s that war would bring huge spike in Nato-Russia tensions w/ potential confrontations over range of issues (arms supplies, Black Sea activity), and Nato does not want to be vulnerable or coerced in any such crisis.
Macron is really out on a limb here, with his credibility at stake. “The intensity of the dialogue we have had with Russia and this visit to Moscow are likely to prevent [a military operation] from happening. Then we will discuss the terms of de-escalation”
Macron: “We must protect our European brothers by proposing a new balance capable of preserving their sovereignty and peace. This must be done while respecting Russia and understanding the contemporary traumas of this great people and nation” politico.eu/article/emmanu…
For those who want the original. "L’intensité du dialogue que nous avons eu avec la Russie et cette visite à Moscou sont de nature à empêcher que cela n’advienne." lejdd.fr/International/…
The last few weeks have resurrected a longstanding debate on how journalists & their readers should interpret, scrutinise, and report on intelligence-based claims that are presented without evidence. It is not a straightforward issue. 🧵
On the one hand, claims made without evidence should be treated sceptically. Big ones especially so. Governments need not be lying to misperceive or misunderstand things. On the other hand, it is facile to assume, automatically, that every situation is essentially Iraq 2002-03.
In some cases, and increasingly, open-source intelligence (👇) can corroborate or disprove government claims. This applies to Russia and the West alike, though their track record is not equivalent. economist.com/briefing/2021/…
Very good NYT piece on the Russian buildup. "American officials say that President Vladimir V. Putin has begun taking steps to move military helicopters into place, a possible sign that planning for an attack continues." nytimes.com/2022/01/10/us/…
"a relatively mild winter has slowed the ground’s freezing, and Mr. Putin’s deadline for committing his forces has slipped further toward the spring, officials say. The hard winter freeze that typically comes to Ukraine by January has not happened" nytimes.com/2022/01/10/us/…
Military meteorology: "To get a better sense of possible conditions this year, the Biden administration has enlisted meteorologists to look more closely at the likely weather in Ukraine in the coming weeks, according to a U.S. official." nytimes.com/2022/01/10/us/…
"[Former Danish intel chief] Lars Findsen was ... arrested at Copenhagen Airport on 8 December at 09:52. He and the other detainees are all suspected of having leaked highly classified information the media" dr.dk/nyheder/indlan…
This story is quite something. Findsen ,the ex Danish intel chief, "has been in custody for a month...There has been a name ban in the case, which is why Politiken and other media have been barred from telling the public" politiken.dk/indland/art855…
"Findsen called the case "insane"... The judge decided later in the morning that the case should continue to be conducted behind double closed doors. Formally, the public thus knows neither the charges against Findsen nor his position" berlingske.dk/samfund/fe-che…
A striking story. US special forces and marines have been in Taiwan for over a year: Marines "working with local maritime forces on small-boat training. The American forces have been operating in Taiwan for at least a year" wsj.com/articles/u-s-t…
"About two dozen members of U.S. special-operations and support troops are conducting training for small units of Taiwan’s ground forces, the officials said. The U.S. Marines are working with local maritime forces on small-boat training" wsj.com/articles/u-s-t…
Another source. "Small numbers of US special operations forces have been rotating into Taiwan on a temporary basis to carry out training of Taiwanese forces, two sources familiar with the matter said on Thursday, speaking on condition of anonymity." smh.com.au/world/asia/us-…