Thread by @DougKass

@realmoney @carlquintanilla @ScottWapnerCNBC @ferrotv @lisaabramowicz1 @riskreversal @KeithMcCullough @hedgeye
Another Lesson Learned... Opinions are like assholes, everyone has one:

Feb 11, 2022 | 08:00 AM EST DOUG KASS
You Don't Know Who Is Swimming Naked

Until the Tide Goes Out
* The Dunning- Kruger Effect is vividly seen these days in the business media and elsewhere
* Avoid the self confident and smug talking heads
Business commentators, strategists, analysts, money managers and "talking heads" have short memories - but I

don't and you shouldn't either.
It is one of my pet peeves that investment/trading losers are swept under the rug - as many of those that you are exposed to are selling you a service or seeking ratings/eyeballs to continue what has become almost a daily charade.

That charade is exposed not when markets are ebullient, but rather when the tide goes out and markets suffer.
What happened to the uber confident bulls in the autos - General Motors ($GM) is trading under $47/share this morning, down from $67 on January 3,2022, or in Ford ($F)

which is exchanging hands at $17, or about one third less than its recent high?
Answer: They are still blathering and giving "advice."
The same can be said of many stocks that have been forcefully recommended but have fallen dramatically - like Coinbase ($COIN) , Moderna

($MRNA) , Sofi Technologies ($SOFI) , Facebook (FB) , PayPal ($PYPL) , Robinhood ($HOOD) , Carvana ($CVNA) , Marathon Digital ($MARA) , MicroStrategy ($MSTR) , Ginkgo Bioworks ($DNA) , Shopify ($SHOP) , Spotify ($SPOT) , and any of a number of gewgaws.

Or, how about the $100k Bitcoin boys - a short term forecast delivered with confidence and assertion - only to be received with a -48% drawdown in cryptocurrency prices. Note: When one is down by nearly one half in an investment, you need a double to get back to even!

The list gets longer as the markets grows shakier.
The commentators have moved on - usually to what is "working" today (e.g., financials or energy stocks - for that matter whatever is on the "new high list") and unlike the elephant who never forgets, they have forgotten their

spectacular investing and trading boners.
Regularly commentators talk outside their sphere of knowledge - as I heard last night a trader - whose career has solely been about taking orders from large institutional money managers - is pointedly advising Facebook on corporate

strategy even though he/she has likely never even done a spreadsheet on the company, nor looked at a balance sheet or income statement of the company.
"I don't know" is not in their vocabulary and they should not be in your viewing.
This behavior is known clinically as

the Dunning-Kruger Effect:
"The Dunning-Kruger effect is the cognitive bias whereby people with low ability at a task overestimate their ability. Some researchers also include in their definition the opposite effect for high performers: their tendency to underestimate their

skills. The Dunning-Kruger effect is usually measured by comparing self-assessment with objective performance."
If I make enemies from these words, so be it - but I will save you money from this column and that is all I care about!
Grandma Koufax used to say it the best,

"These people are talking out of their ass."
Don't rely on those that fail to memorialize the investment successes/failures of their recommendations - hide your children and portfolios from them. And do not take any investment advice without doing your own homework.

And that includes what I deliver to you @dougkass, as well! @threadreaderapp unroll @business