Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Feb 12, 2022 6 tweets 4 min read Read on X
NZ #ExtremeWeather Update Thread.

What was Tropical #CycloneDovi has fallen apart and is now more like a front. Overnight a lot of rain has fallen over central NZ Sth and Nth islands.

But the rain event will soon come to an end.

IMAGE: IR satellite image of remains of #Dovi.
Heavy rain over northern parts of NZ now looks unlikely. This animation shows model predictions (ECMWF model) of rain fall from 6pm last night NZ time through to Monday 6pm.
In this 24 hour @Metservice rain radar animation - from 4pm Saturday through to 4am this morning, a lot of this rain has already fallen. The forecast indicates it will continue to move northwards, but it appears to be weakening.
This PWAT model forecast (also from ECMWF) shows what remains of the atmospheric moisture over NZ from 6pm Saturday through to Sunday at midnight NZT.

It does not look overly concerning, and again much of the rainfall which can be inferred from this has already fallen now.
From the look of things NZ has gotten off fairly lightly from #DOVI in the end. The worst damage appears to be slips which have closed a lengthy part of SH1 north of Christchurch.

But it is possibly a good reminder of the changing climate and the threats it poses.
This image shows a closer up satellite view of the flow of moisture laden air over NZ. The Buller Region and North Canterbury appear to have received the most rain. And Taranaki appears to have also gotten off better than forecast - but it will also receive the final burst today.

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