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Paul Smith 🇬🇧 Profile picture
@PJSmith
Feb 13, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Code experiments...
I thought it might be interesting to map the pivots around a specific hourly minute. Here, zero, so, on the hour, and observe the price action around those closes. I don't get quite the same view from an hourly chart, for example.
Interesting... 🤔
Just connecting the dots (where you have several in a trend), is kinda nice...
OK, kinda messy and limited data, but clearly, hourly trend channel breaks might be something to check out on a few more charts :) These are regression channels, dot to dot (where the dots trend a few)
Just did a little video on this. Beer fueled, so, err, your mileage may vary. Watch it now before I decide it was a bad idea 😉
:)
Also, noted long, long ago that mkt seems to have a memory for trend lines going way, way back. Not sure if this is just peoples minds seeing what they want, but the price does _appear_ to often react. I'm not quite a believer yet, but still...
All 100% coincidence, I am sure 🤔
Magic...
So, my last update on this. You can easily play with this yourself if you want. But, today seemed to play out very nicely...

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More from @PJSmith

Paul Smith 🇬🇧 Profile picture
Dec 31, 2023
A share to challenge your alcohol-soaked brains😄
I've been doing some more ML stuff. Deeper! Trying to get it all native C#
Anyway - A useful test this, in itself. I gave a model 600 days of 1m data and asked it to model if the price would be +/- 10 pts in 15 bars time...
More importantly, I gave it a bunch of commodity indicator outputs using the defaults (as any 1m chart scalper would likely do!). I dug into the model to find which columns it found most useful as predictors. This may be a new benchmark test for me!
No cognitive bias here! The machine is emotionless!
In the pic, you are looking at the column names, then a list of the columns and their calculated ranked importance to the outcome. Image
Read 6 tweets
Paul Smith 🇬🇧 Profile picture
Jun 16, 2023
Figured out how to save and restore model data (arrays mainly) efficiently. So, now, I can share and distribute trained models!
Beer really does work... Image
Trained for 80 range and hooked in with profileBars. 90 days of training data on the 7-day chart. Awesome companion! (zones are from HeikenAshi indie) Image
You know what's coming next, don't you, if all this works out?
Read 4 tweets
Paul Smith 🇬🇧 Profile picture
Jun 15, 2023
Work in progress
KNN ML - Stores all the patterns of past bars, then iterates over all those patterns finding the closest X matches to now, and from those matches, calculates the probability of what happens next. Simple ML, but quite well suited to this, I think Image
You do have to believe, however, that past history is in fact reflective of what might happen in the future...
So, I had quite a bit of fun (only smashed 3 things!) with this yesterday. I like it. I think it gives me real-time probabilities, which is what I am always looking for. Anyway - Now I ask for some ideas from you 😁 Image
Read 13 tweets
Paul Smith 🇬🇧 Profile picture
Jun 11, 2023
Was reading some articles on the MQL site yesterday and it got me to thinking.. (btw - even though I do not use the platform, MQL has articles and user contributions the other platforms like Ninjatrader can only dream about!)
So, some research starts
Anyway. Looking at short term trend probabilities over a set number of brick style bars (12 range in this case). This histogram represents the imbalance of up or down closes in that range. I am just going to let that sit for a while, and marinate... 🍸 Image
With a bucket size of 2 Image
Read 12 tweets
Paul Smith 🇬🇧 Profile picture
May 8, 2023
Very narrow range. Magnet below. Singles need fixing. If breaks with some follow-through, it's the logical spot (but when has NQ ever been logical!?). Image
Singles are all filled. Took some off at the end. Some magnets are about 10-20pts lower, but...
Scale a little more into vpoc. Not much left now
Read 4 tweets
Paul Smith 🇬🇧 Profile picture
May 7, 2023
Came up with a completely new way to score chart /indicator patterns yesterday. Just finished coding it. Works on reversal-type bars. The idea is, you take your pattern, then add or subtract the Abs(Open-Close) of the next bar. This gives you a little score on continuation bars
..and a big score on reversal bars (because, of the reversal-type chart). Iterate through all your bars and each pattern ends up with a sum of the scores. Some patterns will be wildly positive, some negative. You're in the middle is chop. Auto-biased for the current action.
..this should give a statistical probability of if the next bar is up, or down. But, this probably is not to trade-off. It IS to say, if this indie/pattern is saying this, the data really does show, the next bar(s) will be up/down. Data to back up your beliefs. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets

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