No amount of equivocating can obscure the difference between aggression and self-defense. The just & rational policy for NATO to pursue at this hr is to provide Ukraine w/ maximum capabilities to exact the greatest cost possible from Putin if he takes one more cm of their soil.
If the Kremlin signals that it does not believe in NATO's temerity to do so, that policy should not only be pursued w/ respect to Ukraine but also Georgia, Moldova & all Eurasian states where Russia has initiated (hybrid) security ops. It's time get serious about containment.
NATO leaders have pursued every conceivable diplomatic course w/ Putin, well past the point of absurdity. It has produced near zero results. If we genuinely want a different relationship w/ the Kremlin - & I'm not sure all in NATO do, alas - it's time to impose actual costs.
If Ukraine falls, it will not be the end but the beginning of a far wider Eurasian conflict. We are standing, collectively, at the precipice of a gaping maw of chaos. The choice to merely walk away is no longer available; decades of appeasement have foreclosed that.
I've long argued re: the Western Balkans that as goes Bosnia and Herzegovina, so goes the whole region. And that's true. But as goes Ukraine, so goes the whole of Europe. Even if all you care about is your own comfort & security, the defense of Ukraine is an existential Q now.
So, NATO either gives Ukraine the ability to turn any further incursion by the Kremlin into its territory into a terrible, grinding, costly horror show or we have to do it ourselves in a few yrs time, anyway, w/ God knows what kind of "unity" left w/in the Alliance.
And before you squirm & feign outrage over this language: that's what war is, horror and terror. The Ukrainians didn't choose it, no more than the Bosnians did. But NATO must give them the tools - yes, the horrible, terrible tools - to end it. For their sake and ours. /xxx

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More from @JasminMuj

Feb 13
My view of international relations is absolutely shaped by the dissolution of Yugoslavia, the West's failure to react & my own exp as a child refugee. The "thread" of my analyses is that I'm of a generation & place where "1989" was not the God that failed. It just never happened.
Does this give my commentary a certain tilt? Totally, just like all those who folks who (mis)read the "The End of History" literally and thought the proliferation of shopping malls in China would somehow result in democracy. My view just has a bit more edge and soot.
I try to stay in my analytical lane re: BiH & the Balkans but when I comment on places like Ukraine, Taiwan, Syria, Xinjiang etc it's because I see similar patterns of appeasement & accommodation w/ despots & I feel a genuine, personal moral imperative to speak out.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 5
I can now share that I have signed with @HurstPublishers to write my second monograph, provisionally titled "The Bosniaks: Nationhood after Genocide," on sale circa Fall 2023. I am extremely grateful to be working with @MikeDwyerMike & co. again.

So, what can you expect?🧵
This text won't be history of the Bosniak people, nor a history of BiH. I am concerned w/ the ideological and political foundations of 21st century Bosniak nationhood. That is, the ideological self-conceptions of the largest but also most misunderstood community in BiH.
This work treats the Bosniaks as primarily an ethno-national group, rather than a religious community. While Islam is a significant aspect of their self-conception, it's the idea of Bosniak indigeneity to BiH that is the constitutive element of Bosniak ethnic & national identity.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 4
Vital thread from the always insightful @MaximEristavi about the sordid economic realities “Twitter influencers” from places like Ukraine, Syria, BiH etc deal with; working 18hr days, 365, providing “insight” & “analysis,” but pulling down peanuts w/ 0 institutional support.
The cruel irony in being a go-to source for analyses on societies like these is your views are seen as indispensable but the compensation is “negotiable” & usually absent entirely. So your analysis is extracted to service needs of those w/ both institutional & financial support.
And while this is especially acute for those still in-country - where ppl are risking even their own security to provide these goods - it’s true even for those in the diaspora bc almost all of us come from refugee/migrant backgrounds w/ no economic “padding” to fall back on.
Read 6 tweets
Nov 3, 2021
The commander of @euforbih has chosen the moment of the worst security crisis in BiH since the war to observe that the formation of the BiH Armed Forces was not agreed to at Dayton. No, it was an act of the BiH Parliament, the country’s paramount law-making body.
Why did @euforbih commander chose to make this statement at this time? Let’s just say someone might want to look into his political affiliations in his native Austria, and how those synch up with the regime in Banja Luka.
Here’s the spin by Dodik’s criminally corrupt advisor, the great “gotcha”. Like every other state on Earth, BiH has a parliament that passes laws which are not explicitly stated in the constitution. Don’t like the law? Overturn it in parliament or go to the courts.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 2, 2021
Strong sense of dread gripping everyone in BiH I am speaking with tonight. Even some informed foreign officials on the ground appear to be struggling to communicate the seriousness of the situation to their respective capitals.
My concern is that dread will soon give way to rage. Dodik is doing everything possible to make himself appear like Karadzic 2.0. But unlike in 1991/92, there won’t be peace marches; there will be demands for confrontation. Which, to some extent, he’s counting on.
As I’ve explained, his entire strategy rests on concocting a crisis which Belgrade & Moscow can then use to orchestrate some kind of (hybrid) intervention. If Dodik can win Transnistria-like status out of that for the RS entity, he’ll be satisfied.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 2, 2021
An important txt from @julianborger on the worsening secession crisis in BiH. It’s at least encouraging that the OHR’s report to the UNSC will clearly identify that the risks of conflict have risen sharply, thx to Dodik’s adventurism. Consequences needed. theguardian.com/world/2021/nov…
BiH’s investigative outlet @IstragaB has published the full @OHR_BiH report to the UNSC and the despite lackluster start to Schmidt’s tenure this txt, correctly, pulls no punches, calling the current situation the worst crisis in post-war BiH. istraga.ba/wp-content/upl… Image
Remains unclear what exact timeline for actual UNSC meeting on BiH will be, whether Schmidt will speak at session. I’ve been told by at least 3 diplomatic sources from 3 different NATO states that while the Russians are the main obstacle, France also being “difficult”.
Read 4 tweets

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