Will Russia invade Ukraine during the Super Bowl?
In Tom Clancy's "The Sum of All Fears," the Kremlin did not understand the significance of the Super Bowl.
In real life, Russia's government knows exactly what "the Big Game" means to America. 🧵
In Tom Clancy's "The Sum of All Fears," the Kremlin did not understand the significance of the Super Bowl.
In real life, Russia's government knows exactly what "the Big Game" means to America. 🧵
From a tactical level, the timing of such an operation is plausible.
Russia has the forces in place, and kickoff will be at 3:30AM Kiev time.
However, I believe it's very unlikely that this scenario would play out.
Russia has the forces in place, and kickoff will be at 3:30AM Kiev time.
However, I believe it's very unlikely that this scenario would play out.
First, it wouldn't advance Russia's grand strategy.
The PSYOPs effect inside America of disrupting the Super Bowl with live updates from a Ukraine invasion would be immense.
But Russia's goals in Ukraine have very little to do with traumatizing the American homeland.
The PSYOPs effect inside America of disrupting the Super Bowl with live updates from a Ukraine invasion would be immense.
But Russia's goals in Ukraine have very little to do with traumatizing the American homeland.
Second, there would be little to no tactical advantage.
American forces have already been evacuated from Ukraine, and Ukrainian troops will not be distracted by the game.
If the Russians want to catch the defenders off guard, this isn't the ideal moment.
American forces have already been evacuated from Ukraine, and Ukrainian troops will not be distracted by the game.
If the Russians want to catch the defenders off guard, this isn't the ideal moment.
Third, I do not anticipate a sudden, unexplained invasion by Russia.
If President Putin decides to deploy the forces he has positioned around Ukraine, it will likely be *after* an incident of some kind in the Donbas.
No such incident is underway right now.
If President Putin decides to deploy the forces he has positioned around Ukraine, it will likely be *after* an incident of some kind in the Donbas.
No such incident is underway right now.
Fourth, state media has not prepared the Russian people for an invasion of Ukraine.
If this were to suddenly happen, I can't understate how shocked Russians would be.
There would not be domestic support for war without a new, precipitating incident to justify it.
If this were to suddenly happen, I can't understate how shocked Russians would be.
There would not be domestic support for war without a new, precipitating incident to justify it.
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