Thread by @ClintEhrlich

I'll put my reputation on the line: There is now zero chance that Russia suddenly invades Ukraine.

It doesn't mean the crisis is over – far from it – but the "sudden invasion" scenario is off the table.

Here's why. 🧵

Today, Russia claimed that it began withdrawing forces after the completion of drills around Ukraine.

This has been disputed by NATO, who argues that the Russians have not meaningfully drawn down their troop numbers.

In theory, a sudden attack remains viable.

In reality, Russia's current expenditures of diplomatic capital make that implausible.

Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said today "will go down in history as the day Western war propaganda failed."

She said the West has been "shamed and destroyed without firing a single shot."

Many in the West will argue that Russia could still attack.

That this might all be a diversion.

That the Russians could be pulling back... only to get Ukraine to relax before a sudden attack.

This fear overlooks the role of domestic politics and messaging in the Kremlin's decision-making.

Previously, the best argument against Russia invading was that state media was not preparing the population for war.

Now, we've gone a step further: Anti-preparation!

We are no longer dealing with merely the absence of domestic propaganda.

Instead, Russia is *actively* telling its own people that the projected invasion is all Western disinformation.

The government will not be able to ask people to then support the very same invasion.

Does that mean the threat is over? That Russia will definitely *not* invade Ukraine?

No, not at all. Russia still has forces massed that are capable of executing the operation.

But it would need a *casus belli* to justify the invasion. That won't happen today.

It could happen in the coming days or weeks, but it won't be on the timeline that the West was projecting.

There needs to be enough time for a provocation, likely in Donbass, to not only occur but also to be *publicized* inside Russia.

That is how you mobilize popular support.

The messaging to justify a future invasion would go something like this:

"We pulled back our forces.

But that only emboldened the West.

They responded by attacking Russian citizens in Eastern Ukraine.

Now we have to respond to stop the genocide."

We've already seen clues pointing towards that approach.

Today, even as he said that Russia does not want war, President Putin again labeled what is happening in the Donbass "genocide."

He blamed Ukraine for failing to honor the negotiated ceasefire.

There was also just a 351-to-16 vote in the Duma requesting that Putin recognize the breakaway Donetsk and Lugansk republics.

So far, he has resisted doing so – but it's a card he could play to bait Ukraine into launching an assault.

That is a more plausible path to war.