It's Super Bowl Sunday, the Ottawa standstill is now on week three, and a potential war in Europe is brewing.
who is ready for some charts
who is ready for some charts
So the other day somebody said to me "Are we sure Omicron transmission is really going down?"
It's a fair question as the government gets set this week to announce changes to restrictions.
And it's something I've been cautious about saying definitively.
It's a fair question as the government gets set this week to announce changes to restrictions.
And it's something I've been cautious about saying definitively.
But a month ago, I said the three things I'd be looking at most, given testing limitations, were:
- Wastewater amounts
- Daily hospital admissions
- Positivity rates
These have been harder to suss out because of the government's data issues, but here's where we're now at.
- Wastewater amounts
- Daily hospital admissions
- Positivity rates
These have been harder to suss out because of the government's data issues, but here's where we're now at.
Let's look at wastewater levels in Metro Vancouver.
As a rudimentary measure, I'm using the rolling average of the last four measurements at the five stations (which tends to cover about two weeks).
Here's where we're at since the start of the year.
As a rudimentary measure, I'm using the rolling average of the last four measurements at the five stations (which tends to cover about two weeks).
Here's where we're at since the start of the year.
Wastewater amounts are down by 30-75% depending on the station.
All but Iona have been on a fairly steady downward trend the last two weeks.
Lots of caveats to this, but still encouraging.
All but Iona have been on a fairly steady downward trend the last two weeks.
Lots of caveats to this, but still encouraging.
Now let's look at new daily hospital admissions — which, as we remember, tends to lags behind transmission trends by 1-2 weeks.
Rolling average of new admissions is now at its lowest point since January 14, and is down 25% from its peak.
Rolling average of new admissions is now at its lowest point since January 14, and is down 25% from its peak.
Finally, let's look at the positivity rate — the toughest to analyze given the lag in MSP results, but still useful given the relatively stable sample size now eligible to get an official test.
Trending down in the Lower Mainland, but a more mixed story everywhere else.
Trending down in the Lower Mainland, but a more mixed story everywhere else.
Given all that, I'm confident that transmission is down a fair bit in B.C. — with the caveat that it's very clear in the Lower Mainland, and less so in the rest of the province.
Not sure this will change anybody's minds about broader issues at this point, but there you go!
Not sure this will change anybody's minds about broader issues at this point, but there you go!
(And, once again: it would be great if the government with a $60 billion annual budget would invest a little bit more into transparent data presentation so I didn't feel obligated to do this in my time off)
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