Justin McElroy Profile picture
Feb 13 9 tweets 2 min read
It's Super Bowl Sunday, the Ottawa standstill is now on week three, and a potential war in Europe is brewing.

who is ready for some charts
So the other day somebody said to me "Are we sure Omicron transmission is really going down?"

It's a fair question as the government gets set this week to announce changes to restrictions.

And it's something I've been cautious about saying definitively.
But a month ago, I said the three things I'd be looking at most, given testing limitations, were:

- Wastewater amounts
- Daily hospital admissions
- Positivity rates

These have been harder to suss out because of the government's data issues, but here's where we're now at.
Let's look at wastewater levels in Metro Vancouver.

As a rudimentary measure, I'm using the rolling average of the last four measurements at the five stations (which tends to cover about two weeks).

Here's where we're at since the start of the year.
Wastewater amounts are down by 30-75% depending on the station.

All but Iona have been on a fairly steady downward trend the last two weeks.

Lots of caveats to this, but still encouraging.
Now let's look at new daily hospital admissions — which, as we remember, tends to lags behind transmission trends by 1-2 weeks.

Rolling average of new admissions is now at its lowest point since January 14, and is down 25% from its peak.
Finally, let's look at the positivity rate — the toughest to analyze given the lag in MSP results, but still useful given the relatively stable sample size now eligible to get an official test.

Trending down in the Lower Mainland, but a more mixed story everywhere else.
Given all that, I'm confident that transmission is down a fair bit in B.C. — with the caveat that it's very clear in the Lower Mainland, and less so in the rest of the province.

Not sure this will change anybody's minds about broader issues at this point, but there you go!
(And, once again: it would be great if the government with a $60 billion annual budget would invest a little bit more into transparent data presentation so I didn't feel obligated to do this in my time off)

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More from @j_mcelroy

Feb 12
Extending the Millennium Line to UBC, or getting rapid transit on the North Shore: choose one.

That could be the dilemma that Metro Vancouver mayors face later this year.

This week's Metro Matters newsletter: subscriptions.cbc.ca/newsletter_sta…
it’s meaningless poll time

which rapid transit mega project would you like to see happen first
and which one do you think is *more likely* to happen first?
Read 4 tweets
Jan 18
#COVID19 hospitalizations in B.C. jumped up 27% over the weekend to 819, and there were 22 new deaths, most over a weekend since October.

Effects of the Omicron surge are really being seen in two of our main metrics, but ICU cases only up 4 to 99.

Today's chart.
Given the sharp uptick we've seen in deaths in the last week, but not a corresponding rise in ICU cases, one might think a lot of these are in long-term care settings.

But we only get that information on a backdated basis, so hard to be conclusive.
An average of 44,061 people in B.C. received a booster shot over the weekend, a 22% increase over the prior week.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 17
Regarding B.C.'s Omicron restrictions being extended indefinitely today — it's entirely possible they get amended again tomorrow, and the change was simply to keep the status quo for 24 hours until a bigger press conference
(which would explain why the extension was quietly placed online to satisfy legal requirements, instead of communicated through any sort of news release or press conference — an actual indefinite suspension would be big news!)
you may ask "but why wouldn't the government just do an announcement today if they're going to change things tomorrow?"

look, i'm not clairvoyant

if i were, would i be spending all my time either working or being on this bad website?

(please do not answer that question)
Read 4 tweets
Jan 17
HOME FOR A REST VS BABY BELUGA
I'M LIKE A BIRD VS CALL ME MAYBE

THE SEMIFINALS OF #bcsongbracket ARE HERE

WHO WILL MAKE THE CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND?
Home For A Rest
Band: Spirit of the West
Year: 1990
Genre: Folk Rock
Path To The Semifinals: defeated Mama Let Him Play, Eyes Of A Stranger, Raise A Little Hell
Typically Sang At: 1am, half singing and half screaming the words while awkwardly dancing

Baby Beluga
Artist: Raffi
Year: 1980
Genre: Children's
Path To The Semifinals: defeated Full Metal Jackoff, Summer of '69, Making It Work, We're Here For A Good Time
Typically Sang At: your small child, softly, while they fall asleep

Read 9 tweets
Jan 10
A 23% increase in #COVID19 hospitalizations in just three days in B.C., rising from 349 to 431, and nearly a doubling since the beginning of the year.

At the same time, ICU up just to 95.

Seven new deaths.

Today's chart.
You're much more at risk for hospitalization if you're unvaccinated, but the number of two dose people in hospital is also going up fairly quickly.

The current wave does not lend itself to easy soundbites.
Everyone knows Omicron is tearing through B.C.

But people want to know when will it start to subside. And it's still hard to say!

However, Coastal Health has had the same testing restraints in place for a couple weeks now.

They've seen a drop.

*Some* mild encouragement.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 10
BRACKET TIME

The first round of #bcsongbracket to determine the best song in British Columbia has begun!

Today, we go from 44 entries to 32, with the top seeds in each era getting a bye to the second round.

who is ready to be ANGRY about THINGS THAT DON'T MATTER
Let's start with the classic side, beginning with the second song entry for two of B.C.'s most iconic bands.

Ocean Pearl may not the favourite song of all 54-40 fans, but it's arguably their most listened to hit.

But is it a match for Loverboy's 80s anthem Turn Me Loose?
Speaking of artists with two songs in the bracket, Spirit of the West's Home For A Rest could be the favourite to win it all — but they also have If Venice Is Sinking.

Is the Spirit spirit so deep it can defeat Roxy Roller, one of the most enduring glam rock hits of the 70s?
Read 17 tweets

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