Almost 2 years since our low-HIT (herd immunity threshold) preprint was released the paper has been peer reviewed and accepted for publication in a scientific journal (specific details soon).
The accepted version features #COVID19 in England/Scotland: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
The accepted version features #COVID19 in England/Scotland: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Following the initial preprint submitted to medRxiv in April 2020 the theory that individual variation in susceptibility and exposure (frailty variation) to infection lowers HIT and epidemic final size was featured in many news and science outlets, eg:
Since then, @CorderRM @jessicaagking @caesoma @rjaaguas @ChikinaLab @WesPegden Marcelo Ferreira, Carlos Penha-Goncalves, Guilherme Goncalves and I, have been developing specific methods to efficiently apply the frailty variation theory to the COVID-19 pandemic.
For England/Scotland we estimate HIT in the range 25-29% for the original virus (wild type), 30-34% for the alpha variant, and 36-41% for delta. The study just accepted after peer review was conducted prior to omicron so we don't have estimates for that variant yet.
When comparing modelled epidemic curves to those obtained with no or less heterogeneity (such as in other modelling studies), our epidemics tend to be considerably smaller and conform better with data which is more evident in the long run.
@GrahamMedley @mlipsitch @joel_c_miller @KirschnerDenise @lauerjeremy
@StrathMathStat @UniStrathclyde
@StrathMathStat @UniStrathclyde
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
