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Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
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Feb 15 • 9 tweets • 1 min read
Conditional on Russia invading Ukraine, do you think prominent pro-Russian tweeters in the west will mostly say...
Also, while we're at it...

Will Ukraine experience ANY battlefield casualties at the hands of uniformed Russian troops in the next 24 hours?
Conditional on a shooting war beginning...

Will uniformed Russian soldiers arriving via land successfully enter Maidan square in within the first 72 hours of fighting?
Conditional Russian troops successfully taking Kyiv...

What will happen to Ukraine's current government, meaning its elected president, legislature, and political appointees?
Okay, now, some other angles here. Conditional on war starting...

Will any uniformed Ukrainian military units defect as a group to Russia?
Conditional on war starting BUT NOT ASSUMING Russian victory, how many battle/terrorism/insurgency casualties will Russia experience west of the Ural mountains in the first 180 days after that war begins, including police and Russian civilians?
Conditional on a shooting war with Russia starting, will uniformed Ukrainian soldiers occupy Luhansk at any point in the first 180 days of that war beginning?
Conditional on a shooting war with Russia starting, will uniformed Ukrainian soldiers occupy Sevastopol at any point in the first 180 days of that war beginning?
Okay that's enough for now.

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More from @lymanstoneky

Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
Feb 17
So apropos my controversial thread of the past few days, many commenters have claimed that I'm being bigoted because I'm worried a schoolteacher mentioning homosexuality will turn my kid gay.

Obviously, this is not at all what I believe.
But I think there are some people who do worry about that scenario.... and there are also people on the other side who believe *so deeply* in the immutable nature of sexuality that they make similarly implausible arguments.
So first of all, it's important to just empirically demonstrate that sexual identity is not perfectly static. Here's a nice longitudinal study looking only at adults in the US between 1996 and 2006, so it isn't "young people discovering their sexuality." link.springer.com/article/10.100…
Read 46 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
Feb 17
I enjoyed helping with this piece for @NCRegister about pets and fertility.

The question here is: do pets replace kids? Or, relatedly, is pet-mania contributing to low fertility?

I argue the answer is mostly no, but occasionally yes. ncregister.com/news/pets-repl…
So to start with, let me note something striking.

Pets are a huge part of many peoples' lives. We spend money on them, we care about them, etc. Human-animal relations writ large are kind of a massive field of human social life and crucial for understanding human society.
And yet, even though shifts related to animal domestication and husbandry are key elements in the rise of settled human life, virtually no social surveys included any questions about animals until very recently. GSS added a pet question in *2018*.
Read 36 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
Feb 17
Good thread.
Russia has 6 neighbors west of the Caspian sea which are formerly communist states.

2 have joined NATO.

1 has essentially permitted permanent Russian occupation (Belarus).

1 is Azerbaijan.

The other two have been invaded by Russia.
Oh I guess if you include the Konigsberg chunk they have 8 neighbors, and 4 have joined NATO.
Read 5 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
Feb 17
Interesting-- looks like the shelling by the separatists was more intense than I realized. Significant artillery strikes all along the line.

This is exactly what the South Ossetians did to try to goad Georgia in 2008.
Also, QUICK REMINDER:

The 2008 Georgian war WAS DURING THE BEIJING OLYMPICS.
I'm not saying that Beijing hosting Olympics is the causal agent of Russian aggression, but I'm saying that for the sake of world peace, precaution suggests we should never let China host the Olympics ever again.
Read 15 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
Feb 17
For those not keeping up, while we in North America were sleeping, Ukrainian and separatist forces exchanged a few hundred mortar rounds across the line of contact, and a Ukrainian kindergarten was destroyed.
Because there were no reported military casualties and because this was not a conflict confirmed to involved uniformed Russian personnel, this does not count for purposes of my running poll on war risks.
However, the result of this little exchange appears to be that Putin is demanding that the US *abandon all of its bases in Germany*, which is absolutely nuts.
Read 5 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
Feb 16
Genuinely remarkable article. Difficult to imagine what the future of Korea will look like.
One thing worth mentioning here is that this is now the 3rd or 4th article to cover this political turn to label young Korean men misogynistic despite no actual evidence of misogyny being presented. Maybe they are! This article doesn't show that though.
Like when you're saying it's rampant misogyny among young Korean men one would expect to have survey results showing that, idk, those men hate women or something.
Read 12 tweets

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